Politics

98 events

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro86%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.4M Vol.

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1796%

$12.5M Vol.monthly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

260-27933%
280-29921%

$1.8M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.7M Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202718%

$3.9M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

90-114>99%
115-139<1%

$569.4K Vol.daily

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.0M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3165%
December 3140%

$39.9M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.4M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu96%
Ilie Bolojan2%

$5.2M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.3B Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

240-25916%
260-27914%

$297.8K Vol.weekly

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an65%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202820%
December 31, 202713%

$682.8K Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3128%
October 319%

$147.4K Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.0M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.6M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$422.3K Vol.Ended

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party38%

$6.5M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.1M Vol.

$711.3M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Jared Kushner40%

$1.4M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3017%

$594.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$239.6K Vol.20 days left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$240.2K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.2M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3138%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202745%
Netanyahu - Israel PM31%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3149%
November 3035%

$1.3M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%62%
4.0%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$223.6K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$120.3K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)5%

$303.2K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$164.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$175.7K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

11%chance

$214.3K Vol.17 days left

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)87%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$254.4K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow76%
Brad Bradford25%

$369.6K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
240-25914%

$43.2K Vol.weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3136%
November 3033%

$332.6K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$203.0K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202713%

$719.7K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)69%
Mike Rogers (R)33%

$1.6M Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.6K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$94.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

TX-04 House Election Winner

Pat Fallon (R)96%
Jason Pearce (D)<1%

$79.4K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202716%

$711.5K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)80%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 20%

$549.8K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Kaitlan Collins89%

$131.5K Vol.monthly

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202722%

$224.2K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3055%
October 3139%

$107.2K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3130%
October 319%

$357.6K Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)5%

$105.5K Vol.

TX-08 House Election Winner

$53.9K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.8M Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$903.9K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez67%
Jon Ossoff25%

$65.3K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3121%
October 315%

$48.9K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD56%
Other25%

$73.8K Vol.

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp73%
Stefan Evers26%

$235.9K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$663.9K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%chance

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)96%
Gregg Hull (R)6%

$65.8K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202641%
November 30, 202632%

$706.1K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

24%chance

$173.0K Vol.2 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

40-6442%
65-8935%

$19.2K Vol.daily

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$107.0K Vol.17 days left

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$609.9K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$776.6K Vol.47 days left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.3K Vol.2 months left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19937%
160-17927%

$49.5K Vol.daily

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Politics

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?