Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro79%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva21%
$184.0M Vol.

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Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33947%
340-35932%

$3.1M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen47%
Édouard Philippe20%

$151.7M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.8M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.8M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1698%
October 1794%

$13.5M Vol.monthly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.9M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%
December 3135%

$40.5M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$646.6K Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.7M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot50%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.6M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.16 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

320-33916%
300-31915%

$558.6K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$367.6K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202724%
December 3113%

$27.4M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar62%
Likud39%

$809.9K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.8M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3128%
October 319%

$269.3K Vol.

$18.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu88%
Leonardo Badea3%

$5.3M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.2M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$2.0M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$171.8K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8939%
90-11432%

$76.6K Vol.daily

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
October 31, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3144%
November 3031%

$1.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.0K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27912%
240-25911%

$105.6K Vol.weekly

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$640.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%chance

$831.8K Vol.46 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an63%
Puma Shen38%

$1.1M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro76%
Lula25%

$92.8K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman56%
Karen Bass45%

$15.3M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi36%
Steve Witkoff35%

$1.5M Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)30%

$1.7M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$739.2K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

20%chance

$198.9K Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3115%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei52%
Axel Kicillof31%

$875.0K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$252.2K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.3M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

76%chance

$283.4K Vol.19 days left

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 319%

$385.3K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.2K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$454.5K Vol.Ended

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$437.5K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay89%
Pee-wee / Peewee82%

$18.8K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$115.8K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3031%
October 319%

$235.3K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$371.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon42%

$378.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.2K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3131%
November 3026%

$351.5K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$96.1K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together70%
The Democrats19%

$61.8K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

CA-23 House Election Winner

$101.7K Vol.

GA-11 House Election Winner

John Cowan (R)96%
Chris Harden (D)3%

$88.1K Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.5K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$271.7K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$693.3K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula69%
Flavio Bolsonaro32%

$84.7K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 317%

$6.7M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202743%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep69%
Reps sweep19%

$42.8K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$794.9K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

84%chance

$835.0K Vol.2 months left

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)89%
Dan Schwartz (D)13%

$88.2K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula71%
Flavio Bolsonaro30%

$76.9K Vol.

AR-03 House Election Winner

Steve Womack (R)96%
Robb Ryerse (D)3%

$31.3K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$201.3K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$242.2K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$64.0K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)92%
Scott Colom (D)10%

$154.2K Vol.

PA-17 House Election Winner

Chris Deluzio (D)96%
Tony Guy (R)3%

$30.7K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12%chance

$613.3K Vol.2 months left

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%
Édouard Philippe31%

$15.8K Vol.

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

5%chance

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.4K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$523.5K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

21%chance

$511.1K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%60%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

FL-11 House Election Winner

Joe Strada (R)90%
James Pericola (D)9%

$32.3K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3138%

$119.8K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)77%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)23%

$23.5K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

3%chance

$385.1K Vol.4 days left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202760%
January 15, 202732%

$860.2K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby21%

$163.7K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$503.7K Vol.8 months left

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

7%chance

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)37%

$911.9K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$116.7K Vol.16 days left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD93%
Other3%

$93.1K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund74%
Sven Schulze3%

$472.7K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202745%
Susie Wiles12%

$114.8K Vol.annual

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$303.7K Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)89%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$248.5K Vol.

TX-22 House Election Winner

$41.2K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$564.4K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S24%
S + MP20%

$96.3K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$95.1K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)53%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$423.3K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+96%
960-9992%

$382.0K Vol.daily

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 5-10%18%
Ruas <5%14%

$33.9K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%46%
↓ 30%41%

$81.6K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202722%

$772.8K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$848.7K Vol.16 days left

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen86%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%

$30.9K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+17%

$920.3K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$59.7K Vol.4 hours left

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$555.7K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$44.9K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 312%

$139.4K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

120-13942%
140-15925%

$10.0K Vol.daily

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

NY-24 House Election Winner

$50.0K Vol.

FL-28 House Election Winner

Carlos Giménez (R)95%
Phil Ehr (D)6%

$65.4K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

FL-03 House Election Winner

Kat Cammack (R)95%
Seth Harp (D)4%

$44.9K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz90%
Professora Maria do Carmo10%

$56.5K Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković66%
Luka Mesec18%

$19.9K Vol.

Oregon Governor Election Winner

Tina Kotek (D)76%
Christine Drazan (R)24%

$92.7K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)96%
Katy Tyndell (D)5%

$110.0K Vol.

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Netanyahu out by...?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?