Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro78%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva23%
$184.3M Vol.

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Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

340-35970%
360-37926%

$3.7M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%
Édouard Philippe20%

$151.8M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1699%
October 1797%

$13.9M Vol.monthly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$24.0M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3158%
December 3135%

$40.8M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.9M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.6M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.8M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$655.9K Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot47%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.8M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.3M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$432.6K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

380-39915%
360-37915%

$683.8K Vol.weekly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.15 days left

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party65%
Republican Party38%

$6.7M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.9M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar67%
Likud33%

$881.4K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%
December 3112%

$27.5M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 18>99%
October 2199%

$2.0M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3141%
October 3111%

$326.7K Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.6M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

115-13940%
90-11437%

$144.6K Vol.daily

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.6M Vol.2 months left

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu92%
Alexandru Nazare1%

$5.3M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei49%
Axel Kicillof30%

$920.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3142%
November 3028%

$1.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.3K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$174.4K Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an63%
Puma Shen37%

$1.1M Vol.

$1.7M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman56%
Karen Bass45%

$15.3M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

20%chance

$201.9K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro76%
Lula22%

$95.5K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

240-25911%
260-27910%

$109.0K Vol.weekly

FL-18 House Election Winner

$69.2K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$389.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$123.8K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3128%
November 3028%

$364.4K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 3110%

$386.1K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay91%
Pee-wee / Peewee84%

$24.7K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz88%
Professora Maria do Carmo13%

$72.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

1%chance

$129.9K Vol.15 days left

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 317%

$242.2K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)73%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$437.9K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)91%
Scott Colom (D)11%

$169.9K Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202828%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

FL-12 House Election Winner

$80.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.5K Vol.

WI-07 House Election Winner

Michael Alfonso (R)95%
Fred Clark (D)4%

$77.7K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together77%
The Democrats18%

$64.8K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.3M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 314%

$6.7M Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)77%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$573.0K Vol.

WA-03 House Election Winner

$54.6K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$798.1K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China75%
No meeting by December 3123%

$1.8M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

CA-23 House Election Winner

$102.2K Vol.

FL-21 House Election Winner

Brian Mast (R)93%
James Martin (D)8%

$27.6K Vol.

GA-11 House Election Winner

John Cowan (R)96%
Chris Harden (D)3%

$88.1K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula70%
Flavio Bolsonaro31%

$85.8K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep69%
Reps sweep18%

$43.1K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.2K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon42%

$378.1K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202742%
June 30, 202736%

$2.9M Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$260.5K Vol.

OH-01 House Election Winner

Greg Landsman (D)92%
Eric Conroy (R)7%

$52.2K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$843.7K Vol.2 months left

AR-03 House Election Winner

Steve Womack (R)96%
Robb Ryerse (D)3%

$31.3K Vol.

WI-05 House Election Winner

$107.8K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$201.4K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

9%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

PA-17 House Election Winner

Chris Deluzio (D)96%
Tony Guy (R)2%

$30.7K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3137%

$121.3K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

11%chance

$613.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

5%chance

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD94%
PSD + UDMR2%

$95.9K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff35%
Jared Kushner35%

$1.5M Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202761%
January 15, 202749%

$861.7K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$739.5K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula71%
Flavio Bolsonaro30%

$77.1K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.5K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$523.6K Vol.

VA-05 House Election Winner

John McGuire (R)73%
Tom Perriello (D)28%

$127.6K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie22%
Stefan Brodie17%

$518.4K Vol.

FL-11 House Election Winner

Joe Strada (R)90%
James Pericola (D)9%

$32.3K Vol.

NC-06 House Election Winner

Addison McDowell (R)91%
Cyril Jefferson (D)10%

$60.0K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%63%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD96%
UDMR11%

$76.4K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202741%
Susie Wiles16%

$116.1K Vol.annual

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$47.8K Vol.

CA-01 House Election Winner

$45.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

160-17971%
180-19921%

$58.2K Vol.daily

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Douglas Ruas>99%
Dr. Luizinho<1%

$793.2K Vol.

Montana Senate Election Winner

Kurt Alme (R) 92%
Independent8%

$173.5K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22%chance

$511.9K Vol.2 months left

TN-07 House Election Winner

$42.7K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)37%

$913.3K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$242.3K Vol.

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)77%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)23%

$23.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Yoram Cohen14%

$51.2K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

3%chance

$385.1K Vol.3 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

7%chance

$504.1K Vol.8 months left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 20%+21%
Ruas 5-10%12%

$37.7K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen86%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%

$32.3K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$849.9K Vol.15 days left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)89%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$249.2K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$304.7K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S23%
S + MP + V17%

$97.0K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 30%41%
↑ 40%36%

$82.4K Vol.

TX-24 House Election Winner

Beth Van Duyne (R)92%
Kevin Burge (D)10%

$69.8K Vol.

TX-22 House Election Winner

$41.8K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

7%chance

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

WI-06 House Election Winner

Glenn Grothman (R)93%
Brad Smith (D)7%

$45.6K Vol.

CA-05 House Election Winner

$24.0K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time65%
60+16%

$920.9K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+24%
120-13918%

$16.7K Vol.daily

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković65%
Luka Mesec16%

$21.1K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$69.2K Vol.

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

89%chance

$59.4K Vol.11 days left

TN-04 House Election Winner

$108.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula79%
Flavio Bolsonaro20%

$55.6K Vol.

AR-02 House Election Winner

French Hill (R)83%
Chris Jones (D)17%

$39.9K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$63.4K Vol.Ended

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 311%

$139.5K Vol.

IN-02 House Election Winner

Rudy Yakym (R)96%
Jamee Decio (D)4%

$38.8K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE15%

$112.3K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

21%chance

$184.4K Vol.2 months left

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel26%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%

$1.2M Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

36.0+88%
37.0+83%

$4.6K Vol.weekly

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund74%
Sven Schulze3%

$472.8K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

FL-03 House Election Winner

Kat Cammack (R)95%
Seth Harp (D)4%

$44.9K Vol.

NY-24 House Election Winner

$50.0K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$641.4K Vol.

Oregon Governor Election Winner

Tina Kotek (D)76%
Christine Drazan (R)24%

$92.8K Vol.

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 3118%
December 3114%

$4.5K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

7%chance

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

Maine Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

700K-750K25%
650K-700K15%

$17.8K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3163%
Qatar16%

$162.5K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$85.7K Vol.

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

31%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

CA-34 House Election Winner (Individual)

Angela Gonzales-Torres80%
Jimmy Gomez19%

$33.0K Vol.

NY-03 House Election Winner

Tom Suozzi (D)90%
Mike LiPetri (R)11%

$47.6K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)2%

$98.2K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Ossoff 9-12%25%
Ossoff 6-9%21%

$25.7K Vol.

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?