All markets
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
3%chance
- Yes3.3%
Outcomes
- Yes3%
3.3¢ per share
- No97%
96.8¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 3.3¢Spread 0.5¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3¢ | 5.1 | $0.15 |
| 2.9¢ | 20 | $0.58 |
| 2.8¢ | 1,388.56 | $38.88 |
| 2.7¢ | 4,801.92 | $129.65 |
| 2.6¢ | 20 | $0.52 |
| 2.5¢ | 5.1 | $0.13 |
| 2.4¢ | 231.78 | $5.56 |
| 2.3¢ | 1,279.57 | $29.43 |
| 2.2¢ | 20 | $0.44 |
| 2.1¢ | 2,322 | $48.76 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5¢ | 1,000 | $35.00 |
| 3.7¢ | 322.32 | $11.93 |
| 3.8¢ | 20 | $0.76 |
| 3.9¢ | 20 | $0.78 |
| 4¢ | 3,876.73 | $155.07 |
| 4.2¢ | 2,288.76 | $96.13 |
| 4.5¢ | 948.84 | $42.70 |
| 4.7¢ | 5 | $0.24 |
| 4.8¢ | 1,692.24 | $81.23 |
| 4.9¢ | 2,000 | $98.00 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.