Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro77%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva23%
$183.8M Vol.

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Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33944%
340-35925%

$3.0M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen47%
Édouard Philippe20%

$151.6M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.8M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.8M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.6M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.9M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1696%

$13.4M Vol.monthly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$644.5K Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%
December 3137%

$40.4M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.7M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.16 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

300-31916%
320-33914%

$544.2K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$356.9K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202724%
December 3113%

$27.4M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar62%
Likud39%

$793.7K Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.5M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.8M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3128%
October 3110%

$266.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu90%
Leonardo Badea3%

$5.3M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

3%chance

$12.6M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.7M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$2.0M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$171.8K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27912%
240-25911%

$105.3K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3031%

$1.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$278.8K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8940%
90-11428%

$71.7K Vol.daily

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together70%
The Democrats21%

$61.8K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman56%
Karen Bass45%

$15.3M Vol.

$1.1M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro77%
Lula22%

$92.1K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

21%chance

$198.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$735.0K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$252.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)29%

$1.7M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.3M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon42%

$377.3K Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$297.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$523.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei54%
Axel Kicillof31%

$862.9K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.0K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee82%

$17.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%35%
Below 4.6%11%

$370.8K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3122%
October 319%

$379.3K Vol.

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$96.1K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen86%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%

$30.4K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3132%
November 3026%

$351.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$112.2K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$241.9K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova88%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 319%

$229.1K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

CA-23 House Election Winner

$101.7K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

76%chance

$270.7K Vol.19 days left

GA-11 House Election Winner

John Cowan (R)96%
Chris Harden (D)3%

$88.1K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

$834.7K Vol.2 months left

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.5K Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)88%
Dan Schwartz (D)13%

$88.2K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3124%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$445.9K Vol.Ended

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$271.6K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$693.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula69%
Flavio Bolsonaro32%

$84.7K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula68%
Flavio Bolsonaro30%

$74.4K Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep69%
Reps sweep18%

$42.8K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund74%
Sven Schulze3%

$472.7K Vol.

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$794.6K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$63.8K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby21%

$163.5K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

AR-03 House Election Winner

Steve Womack (R)96%
Robb Ryerse (D)3%

$31.3K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.7K Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22%chance

$511.1K Vol.2 months left

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)92%
Scott Colom (D)10%

$154.2K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow69%
Brad Bradford31%

$382.8K Vol.

PA-17 House Election Winner

Chris Deluzio (D)96%
Tony Guy (R)3%

$30.7K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

12%chance

$613.3K Vol.2 months left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)89%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$248.5K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%
Édouard Philippe31%

$15.8K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$200.3K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$848.6K Vol.16 days left

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez41%
Jon Ossoff40%

$74.4K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3138%

$119.7K Vol.

FL-11 House Election Winner

Joe Strada (R)90%
James Pericola (D)9%

$32.3K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$95.1K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↑ 40%44%
↓ 30%44%

$81.4K Vol.

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)77%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)23%

$23.4K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

3%chance

$385.1K Vol.4 days left

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$911.2K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

20%chance

$181.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3119%
October 316%

$35.5K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

7%chance

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

TX-22 House Election Winner

$41.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

TX-23 House Election Winner

$90.0K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$303.7K Vol.

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 312%

$139.4K Vol.

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?