Politics

$44.2M Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass46%

$15.4M Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$203.8K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$24.1M Vol.2 months left

FL-18 House Election Winner

$69.2K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$95.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
<2028%

$551.6K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%21%
Below 4.6%11%

$397.8K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford30%

$407.3K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China73%
No meeting by December 3122%

$1.8M Vol.

TN-04 House Election Winner

$127.5K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.3M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%chance

$853.5K Vol.45 days left

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz85%
Professora Maria do Carmo13%

$78.6K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$272.7K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$257.3K Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep74%
Reps sweep14%

$62.1K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

FL-12 House Election Winner

$81.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson17%

$10.2M Vol.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

29%chance

$24.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

December 3184%
November 3059%

$17.3K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)91%
Scott Colom (D)11%

$170.6K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 3115%

$401.5K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202744%
Susie Wiles23%

$130.3K Vol.annual

Next Press Secretary?

Tricia McLaughlin34%
Alina Habba32%

$15.4K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$523.0K Vol.2 months left

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula65%
Flavio Bolsonaro37%

$100.0K Vol.

WI-07 House Election Winner

Michael Alfonso (R)95%
Fred Clark (D)4%

$77.7K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1998%
October 2998%

$56.0K Vol.monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$130.9K Vol.15 days left

GA-09 House Election Winner

Andrew Clyde (R)97%
Caitlyn Gegen (D)3%

$60.1K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202634%
November 30, 202624%

$753.0K Vol.

WA-03 House Election Winner

$55.1K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?

65-8933%
40-6430%

$14.0K Vol.daily

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3065%
October 3141%

$133.4K Vol.

NC-01 House Election Winner

Don Davis (D)68%
Laurie Buckhout (R)33%

$33.0K Vol.

Montana Senate Election Winner

Kurt Alme (R) 92%
Independent9%

$180.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2845%
Yoram Cohen12%

$60.6K Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$634.0K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202752%
Netanyahu - Israel PM27%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202756%
December 3114%

$4.3M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

24%chance

GA-10 House Election Winner

Houston Gaines (R)96%
Pam Delancy (D)2%

$67.2K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$652.4K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

13%chance

$38.1K Vol.8 months left

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202714%

$734.2K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$126.7K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$901.2K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Mike O'Reilly69%
Nelly Dever27%

$43.5K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)77%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 24%

$575.1K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)54%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$432.7K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?

Massie / Rand88%
Transgender 5+ times82%

$9.8K Vol.

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

85%chance

$68.5K Vol.11 days left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$844.1K Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$287.9K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3124%
October 316%

$71.1K Vol.

PA-14 House Election Winner

$41.9K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3179%
November 3074%

$404.6K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+22%
180-19916%

$21.3K Vol.daily

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Senate control favorite on November 2?

98%chance

$17.2K Vol.17 days left

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202739%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

$206.4K Vol.2 months left

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 15-20%6%
Ruas 10-15%6%

$41.9K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

23%chance

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

9%chance

$39.5K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula64%
Flavio Bolsonaro35%

$84.3K Vol.

FL-21 House Election Winner

Brian Mast (R)93%
James Martin (D)8%

$27.7K Vol.

CA-01 House Election Winner

$46.1K Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$92.8K Vol.

NC-06 House Election Winner

Addison McDowell (R)91%
Cyril Jefferson (D)10%

$60.0K Vol.

Macron out by...?

$670.6K Vol.2 months left

$47.2K Vol.2 months left

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem39%
Susie Wiles30%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie21%
Stefan Brodie17%

$518.6K Vol.

Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?

11%chance

$6.9K Vol.17 days left

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

205-20929%
Below 19024%

$334.0K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro75%
Lula24%

$99.5K Vol.

VA-05 House Election Winner

John McGuire (R)72%
Tom Perriello (D)30%

$128.7K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

OH-01 House Election Winner

Greg Landsman (D)93%
Eric Conroy (R)7%

$52.2K Vol.

Zelenskyy # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

100-119>99%
120-1391%

$17.0K Vol.daily

TX-24 House Election Winner

Beth Van Duyne (R)92%
Kevin Burge (D)9%

$70.2K Vol.

Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?

14%chance

$6.1K Vol.17 days left

IL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%28%
Democrat 15-20%23%

$14.7K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$800.9K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$50.9K Vol.

Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?

16%chance

$6.0K Vol.17 days left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP19%
S18%

$102.2K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$778.7K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson56%
Cadu de Lula42%

$75.3K Vol.

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Chris Pappas (D)89%
John E. Sununu (R)13%

$336.7K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD87%
PSD + AUR4%

$98.9K Vol.

CA-05 House Election Winner

$24.0K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD96%
UDMR20%

$78.5K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula79%
Flavio Bolsonaro21%

$56.4K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202713%

$698.9K Vol.

Yokohama Mayoral Election Winner

Atsumi Harasawa91%
Kazuma Nakatani6%

$12.2K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

David Crowley (D)81%
Tom Tiffany (R)20%

$724.3K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson79%
David Eby22%

$169.2K Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$88.3K Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković64%
Luka Mesec20%

$25.3K Vol.

2026 Collin County Judge Election Winner

Chris Hill87%
John R. "Buster" Brown13%

$25.9K Vol.

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 15-20%21%
Democrat 10-15%20%

$22.0K Vol.

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

President71%
Senate18%

$45.1K Vol.

Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?

24%chance

$5.2K Vol.17 days left

Husted flips Brown for Ohio Senate by November 2?

13%chance

$5.1K Vol.17 days left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

IN-02 House Election Winner

Rudy Yakym (R)96%
Jamee Decio (D)4%

$38.9K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%61%
Iotova 10-20%23%

$22.6K Vol.

NY-22 House Election Winner

John Mannion (D)95%
Kailee Buller (R)5%

$33.2K Vol.

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

$50.4K Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$65.3K Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

4%chance

$5.7K Vol.2 months left

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries83%
Rishi Sharma14%

$56.1K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

160-17925%
140-15924%

$36.3K Vol.daily

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%16%

$7.1M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

36.0+97%
37.0+94%

$6.7K Vol.weekly

Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?

31%chance

$4.5K Vol.17 days left

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$238.4K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon43%

$382.3K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+98%
960-9992%

$386.4K Vol.daily

EU dissolves before 2027?

$185.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3166%
Qatar14%

$163.6K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

VA-01 House Election Winner

Shannon Taylor (D)56%
Rob Wittman (R)44%

$70.1K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202734%
December 31, 20267%

$38.4K Vol.

OK-05 House Election Winner

Stephanie Bice (R)88%
Jena Nelson (D)13%

$24.8K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together80%
The Democrats18%

$65.9K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 30%44%
↑ 40%32%

$85.7K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Ossoff 9-12%25%
Ossoff 6-9%20%

$25.8K Vol.

NY-18 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 15-20%25%
Democrat 20-25%24%

$21.5K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+>99%

$23.3K Vol.weekly

TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%20%
Democrat 0-3%19%

$19.2K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+>99%
<36.8<1%

$10.5K Vol.weekly

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$173.1K Vol.2 months left

CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)

Ken Calvert56%
Young Kim45%

$16.1K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$94.2K Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

20%chance

$12.3K Vol.15 days left

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 3117%
December 3111%

$5.8K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$307.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$69.7K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

$751.1K Vol.2 months left

Tocantins Governor Election Winner

Vicentinho Júnior82%
Professora Dorinha14%

$34.5K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova89%
Аndrey Gyurov11%

$1.2M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Gavin Newsom99%
Marjorie Taylor Greene92%

$138.5K Vol.monthly

Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Craig Hodge97%
Trish Mandewo3%

$19.2K Vol.

Next Premier of Quebec

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon>99%
Bernard Drainville<1%

$421.4K Vol.

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

June 30, 202728%
December 31, 20263%

$10.7K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen86%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon9%

$34.1K Vol.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?

89%chance

$16.2K Vol.1 year left

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%

$1.2M Vol.

Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?

44%chance

$3.2K Vol.17 days left

KS-02 House Election Winner

Derek Schmidt (R)86%
Don Coover (D)13%

$20.3K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)2%

$98.2K Vol.

AL-02 House Election Winner

Rhett Marques (R)71%
Shomari Figures (D)31%

$84.7K Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3132%
October 31<1%

$1.1M Vol.

Kelowna Mayoral Election

Ron Cannan61%
Tom Dyas40%

$27.4K Vol.

Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Gary Sulz75%
Tim Palmer17%

$31.0K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

7%chance

$506.7K Vol.8 months left

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1632%
11-1328%

$11.6K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$383.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff33%
Jared Kushner32%

$1.5M Vol.

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Jim Risch (R)95%
Todd Achilles (I)5%

$144.7K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

20%chance

$184.9K Vol.2 months left

Next President of FIFA

Gianni Infantino79%
Claudio Tapia12%

$2.8K Vol.

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Miloš Vučević24%
Ana Brnabić22%

$85.5K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Texas Senate favorite on November 2?

77%chance

$2.7K Vol.17 days left

Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?

90%chance

$2.7K Vol.17 days left

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$406.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)

$37.1K Vol.

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20262%

$745.3K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$35.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

6-7%46%
5-6%42%

$11.3K Vol.

Richmond Mayoral Election

Rob Howard45%
Kash Heed30%

$39.8K Vol.

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Andy Beshear88%
Ted Cruz83%

$115.4K Vol.

White House # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+88%
160-17923%

$4.4K Vol.daily

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$279.3K Vol.2 months left

Kansas Governor Election Winner

Ty Masterson (R)76%
Cindy Holscher (D)23%

$65.0K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3128%

$464.6K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$13.1K Vol.

FL-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%28%
Republican 5-10%20%

$23.8K Vol.

OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%31%
Democrat 15-20%28%

$31.8K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez42%
Jon Ossoff36%

$76.9K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$147.8K Vol.2 months left

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

≤46 and ≤19229%
47–49 and 193–20725%

$78.5K Vol.

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

10%chance

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase65%
No change33%

$96.9K Vol.annual

Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?

11%chance

$2.7K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$558.3K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$914.3K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

27%chance

$21.3K Vol.2 months left

MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Democrat 30-35%34%
Democrat 25-30%33%

$22.2K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3126%
October 317%

$24.8K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$504.1K Vol.

Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout

1.4M-1.5M35%
<1.1M19%

$18.8K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

160-17947%
140-15944%

$5.1K Vol.daily

Texas Lieutenant Governor Election Winner

Dan Patrick (R)75%
Vikki Goodwin (D)25%

$10.8K Vol.

MI-03 House Election Winner

$57.9K Vol.

CA-07 House Election Winner (by individual)

Doris Matsui61%
Mai Vang36%

$28.1K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

94%chance

$34.3K Vol.8 days left

Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner

Javier Milei56%
Axel Kicillof22%

$13.3K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Cadu wins46%
Allyson 3-6%21%

$11.4K Vol.

PA-01 House Election Winner

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)63%
Bob Harvie (D)39%

$38.6K Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

10%chance

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

2026 Williamson County Judge Election Winner

Heather Jefts63%
Steven Snell30%

$25.5K Vol.

WI-06 House Election Winner

Glenn Grothman (R)93%
Brad Smith (D)7%

$46.3K Vol.

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Thom Tillis11%
Mike Lee9%

$314.6K Vol.

Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?

Democratic64%
Republican35%

$2.5M Vol.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

4%chance

$157.2K Vol.2 months left

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$203.4K Vol.

Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

<582%
5-98%

$4.1K Vol.daily

AK-AL House Election Winner

Republican Party84%
Bill Hill16%

$61.3K Vol.

Next Romania PM appointed by…?

December 3195%
October 3188%

$63.9K Vol.

MT-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%28%
Republican 3-6%18%

$14.3K Vol.

Vancouver Mayoral Election Winner

Pete Fry58%
Ken Sim41%

$283.0K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

PA-16 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 15-20%24%
Republican 10-15%23%

$19.6K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse?