All markets
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027?
20%chance
- Yes19.5%
Outcomes
- Yes20%
19.5¢ per share
- No81%
80.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 19.5¢Spread 19¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 316.48 | $31.65 |
| 7¢ | 6.82 | $0.48 |
| 5¢ | 9.82 | $0.49 |
| 4¢ | 80 | $3.20 |
| 3¢ | 165 | $4.95 |
| 2¢ | 275 | $5.50 |
| 1¢ | 1,391.1 | $13.91 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 29¢ | 88.35 | $25.62 |
| 30¢ | 100 | $30.00 |
| 31¢ | 31.47 | $9.76 |
| 34¢ | 5 | $1.70 |
| 43¢ | 72 | $30.96 |
| 44¢ | 1,000 | $440.00 |
| 46¢ | 18.05 | $8.30 |
| 85¢ | 60 | $51.00 |
| 86¢ | 487 | $418.82 |
| 91¢ | 30 | $27.30 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.