All markets
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
4%chance
- Yes4.5%
Outcomes
- Yes4%
4.5¢ per share
- No96%
95.5¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.5¢Spread 2.3¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3¢ | 40 | $1.32 |
| 3.2¢ | 6.8 | $0.22 |
| 3¢ | 5.64 | $0.17 |
| 2.9¢ | 35 | $1.02 |
| 2.2¢ | 7.45 | $0.16 |
| 2.1¢ | 11.8 | $0.25 |
| 2¢ | 86.2 | $1.72 |
| 1.7¢ | 9.31 | $0.16 |
| 1.6¢ | 14 | $0.22 |
| 1.5¢ | 23.54 | $0.35 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6¢ | 10.63 | $0.60 |
| 5.7¢ | 35.2 | $2.01 |
| 5.8¢ | 230 | $13.34 |
| 6.2¢ | 30.5 | $1.89 |
| 6.3¢ | 208.1 | $13.11 |
| 6.4¢ | 1,056.65 | $67.63 |
| 6.6¢ | 969.86 | $64.01 |
| 6.7¢ | 16 | $1.07 |
| 7.8¢ | 1,054.2 | $82.23 |
| 8¢ | 100.11 | $8.01 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.