Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 16>99%
- October 1796%
$14.7M Vol.monthly

Brazil Presidential Election

$184.8M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance47%
Marco Rubio13%

$712.5M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

October 31>99%
October 19>99%

$879.0K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%
Édouard Philippe18%

$152.2M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3157%
December 3134%

$41.0M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$24.3M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.8M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot50%
Benjamin Netanyahu30%

$47.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.4M Vol.2 months left

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

90-11452%
115-13937%

$337.0K Vol.daily

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party65%
Republican Party37%

$6.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

360-37918%
340-35918%

$782.1K Vol.weekly

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
November 3012%

$17.2M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$18.0M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

74%chance

$429.7K Vol.18 days left

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)39%

$3.9M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 31<1%

$73.7M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3135%
November 3019%

$1.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

12%chance

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1898%
October 2197%

$2.1M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar67%
Likud33%

$893.8K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
December 3113%

$27.5M Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)65%
Jon Husted (R)36%

$1.3M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.9M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$435.6K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)70%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.8M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.15 days left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$715.1K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3133%
November 3027%

$417.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu78%
Sorin Grindeanu1%

$5.4M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

280-29911%
260-27910%

$170.0K Vol.weekly

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei49%
Axel Kicillof30%

$927.5K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.6M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an62%
Puma Shen38%

$1.2M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.2M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.1M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić67%
Ilija Srdanović19%

$1.3M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman54%
Karen Bass46%

$15.4M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Ass>99%
Pee-wee / Peewee>99%

$49.3K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$202.2K Vol.

FL-18 House Election Winner

$69.2K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$95.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 313%

$257.3K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%21%
Below 4.6%11%

$397.8K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow72%
Brad Bradford30%

$407.2K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China73%
No meeting by December 3123%

$1.8M Vol.

TN-04 House Election Winner

$127.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson17%

$10.2M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

5%chance

$853.5K Vol.45 days left

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.9M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 3116%

$401.5K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Winner

Omar Aziz85%
Professora Maria do Carmo13%

$78.4K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$272.7K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan26%

$1.4M Vol.

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep74%
Reps sweep14%

$62.0K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202634%
November 30, 202624%

$752.7K Vol.

FL-12 House Election Winner

$81.5K Vol.

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

28%chance

$24.4K Vol.2 months left

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)91%
Scott Colom (D)11%

$170.6K Vol.

WI-07 House Election Winner

Michael Alfonso (R)95%
Fred Clark (D)4%

$77.7K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula64%
Flavio Bolsonaro37%

$99.9K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202733%
Susie Wiles21%

$129.9K Vol.annual

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$130.9K Vol.15 days left

GA-09 House Election Winner

Andrew Clyde (R)97%
Caitlyn Gegen (D)3%

$60.1K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1998%
October 2198%

$55.6K Vol.monthly

WA-03 House Election Winner

$55.1K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3140%

$133.4K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 17 - October 19, 2026?

65-8933%
40-6430%

$13.8K Vol.daily

NC-01 House Election Winner

Don Davis (D)69%
Laurie Buckhout (R)32%

$33.0K Vol.

Montana Senate Election Winner

Kurt Alme (R) 92%
Independent9%

$180.6K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202740%
June 30, 202735%

$2.9M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2845%
Yoram Cohen13%

$60.2K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202749%
December 3114%

$4.3M Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$633.4K Vol.

GA-10 House Election Winner

Houston Gaines (R)96%
Pam Delancy (D)2%

$67.2K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

13%chance

$38.1K Vol.8 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$652.2K Vol.

$734.2K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$126.4K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)77%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 24%

$575.1K Vol.

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

December 3188%
November 3056%

$10.0K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula64%
Flavio Bolsonaro35%

$84.2K Vol.

Iowa Senate Election Winner

Ashley Hinson (R)59%
Josh Turek (D)42%

$899.6K Vol.

Kamloops, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Mike O'Reilly69%
Nelly Dever29%

$43.4K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$844.1K Vol.2 months left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202749%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2444%
25-2925%

$532.7K Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)54%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$432.4K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3125%
October 316%

$71.1K Vol.

PA-14 House Election Winner

$41.9K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+22%
120-13916%

$21.3K Vol.daily

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3178%
November 3075%

$404.5K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

WI-05 House Election Winner

$108.2K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 15-20%7%
Ruas 10-15%6%

$41.9K Vol.

Senate control favorite on November 2?

98%chance

$17.2K Vol.17 days left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

6%chance

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Next Press Secretary?

Lara Trump44%
Monica Crowley43%

$7.5K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

10%chance

$39.4K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?

Massie / Rand89%
Transgender 5+ times78%

$7.8K Vol.

FL-21 House Election Winner

Brian Mast (R)93%
James Martin (D)8%

$27.7K Vol.

CA-01 House Election Winner

$46.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$285.9K Vol.

NC-06 House Election Winner

Addison McDowell (R)91%
Cyril Jefferson (D)10%

$60.0K Vol.

Macron out by...?

3%chance

$47.2K Vol.2 months left

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem43%
Susie Wiles31%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?

11%chance

$6.9K Vol.17 days left

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie21%
Stefan Brodie17%

$518.6K Vol.

TN-07 House Election Winner

$43.3K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Guerrero Governor Election Winner

$92.2K Vol.

OH-01 House Election Winner

Greg Landsman (D)93%
Eric Conroy (R)7%

$52.2K Vol.

Zelenskyy # posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

100-119>99%
120-1391%

$17.0K Vol.daily

TX-24 House Election Winner

Beth Van Duyne (R)92%
Kevin Burge (D)9%

$70.2K Vol.

Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?

14%chance

$6.1K Vol.17 days left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

IL-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%28%
Democrat 15-20%23%

$14.7K Vol.

Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?

16%chance

$6.0K Vol.17 days left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

205-20929%
Below 19024%

$332.8K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Winner

Allyson56%
Cadu de Lula41%

$75.3K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD87%
PSD + AUR4%

$98.9K Vol.

CA-05 House Election Winner

$24.0K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson79%
David Eby22%

$169.2K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$778.5K Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD96%
UDMR20%

$78.5K Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202713%

$698.9K Vol.

Oregon Governor Election Winner

Tina Kotek (D)76%
Christine Drazan (R)24%

$93.9K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula79%
Flavio Bolsonaro22%

$56.3K Vol.

VA-05 House Election Winner

John McGuire (R)71%
Tom Perriello (D)30%

$127.6K Vol.

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

David Crowley (D)81%
Tom Tiffany (R)20%

$724.3K Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

$88.3K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

M + KD + L + C20%
S20%

$101.6K Vol.

Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner

Zoran Janković65%
Luka Mesec20%

$25.3K Vol.

Yokohama Mayoral Election Winner

Atsumi Harasawa94%
Kazuma Nakatani6%

$12.0K Vol.

2026 Collin County Judge Election Winner

Chris Hill88%
John R. "Buster" Brown13%

$25.9K Vol.

Rhode Island Governor Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 10-15%20%
Democrat 15-20%20%

$22.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$50.1K Vol.

Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?

24%chance

$5.2K Vol.17 days left

Husted flips Brown for Ohio Senate by November 2?

12%chance

$5.0K Vol.17 days left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$799.9K Vol.

IN-02 House Election Winner

Rudy Yakym (R)96%
Jamee Decio (D)4%

$38.9K Vol.

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 3117%
December 3112%

$5.8K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Iotova 20-30%60%
Iotova 10-20%23%

$22.5K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+98%
960-9992%

$386.4K Vol.daily

Sinaloa Governor Election Winner

$50.4K Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$65.3K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

36.0+97%
37.0+94%

$6.7K Vol.weekly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

160-17926%
200+24%

$36.3K Vol.daily

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro77%
Lula22%

$97.4K Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

1%chance

$5.7K Vol.2 months left

Saanich, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Zac de Vries82%
Rishi Sharma13%

$56.0K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%67%
4.0%14%

$7.1M Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3063%
October 3141%

$14.4K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$669.6K Vol.2 months left

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

22%chance

$203.2K Vol.2 months left

Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?

31%chance

$4.5K Vol.17 days left

EU dissolves before 2027?

2%chance

$185.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3166%
Qatar14%

$163.6K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Ossoff 9-12%25%
Ossoff 6-9%20%

$25.8K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen89%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon44%

$382.0K Vol.

OK-05 House Election Winner

Stephanie Bice (R)88%
Jena Nelson (D)13%

$24.8K Vol.

Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?

President79%
Senate20%

$44.0K Vol.

Republican Senate odds hit __ by October 31?

↓ 30%43%
↑ 40%32%

$85.5K Vol.

NY-18 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%27%
Democrat 15-20%24%

$21.5K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 0-3%20%
Democrat 0-3%19%

$19.2K Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

3%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

CA-40 House Election Winner (Individual)

Ken Calvert56%
Young Kim45%

$16.1K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)73%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$438.3K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$94.2K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together80%
The Democrats18%

$65.4K Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202713%

$6.0M Vol.

Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?

20%chance

$12.3K Vol.15 days left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

$751.1K Vol.2 months left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$307.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$69.7K Vol.

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner

Chris Pappas (D)89%
John E. Sununu (R)13%

$334.5K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova89%
Аndrey Gyurov12%

$1.2M Vol.

Coquitlam, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Craig Hodge97%
Trish Mandewo3%

$19.2K Vol.

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout

900K-975K46%
825K-900K34%

$39.8K Vol.

Next Premier of Quebec

Paul St-Pierre Plamondon>99%
Bernard Drainville<1%

$421.4K Vol.

Will Ilhan Omar be deported by...?

June 30, 202728%
December 31, 20263%

$10.7K Vol.

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat?

89%chance

$16.2K Vol.1 year left

Collins flips Jackson for Maine Senate by November 2?

44%chance

$3.2K Vol.17 days left

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Rahm Emanuel23%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%

$1.2M Vol.

KS-02 House Election Winner

Derek Schmidt (R)86%
Don Coover (D)13%

$20.3K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

$279.3K Vol.2 months left

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)95%
Doug Chapin (D)2%

$98.2K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

20%chance

$184.5K Vol.2 months left

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)64%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$914.3K Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3132%
October 31<1%

$1.1M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff>99%
Gavin Newsom99%

$138.1K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1630%
8-1024%

$11.6K Vol.

Kelowna Mayoral Election

Ron Cannan61%
Tom Dyas40%

$27.4K Vol.

Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner

Gary Sulz74%
Tim Palmer19%

$31.0K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP85%
PSOE16%

$113.3K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen86%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon10%

$33.7K Vol.

Tocantins Governor Election Winner

Vicentinho Júnior83%
Professora Dorinha16%

$34.0K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

7%chance

$506.7K Vol.8 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$383.9K Vol.2 months left

Idaho Senate Election Winner

Jim Risch (R)95%
Todd Achilles (I)5%

$144.7K Vol.

Next Serbia Presidential Election Winner

Miloš Vučević24%
Ana Brnabić22%

$85.4K Vol.

AL-02 House Election Winner

Rhett Marques (R)70%
Shomari Figures (D)31%

$84.5K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$558.3K Vol.

Next President of FIFA

Gianni Infantino79%
Claudio Tapia12%

$2.8K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Texas Senate favorite on November 2?

77%chance

$2.7K Vol.17 days left

Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?

90%chance

$2.7K Vol.17 days left

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$406.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Morocco? (Invested)

$37.1K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%46%
6-7%45%

$11.3K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff33%
Jared Kushner32%

$1.5M Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$35.9K Vol.2 months left

White House # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+77%
160-17924%

$4.4K Vol.daily

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20262%

$745.2K Vol.

Kansas Governor Election Winner

Ty Masterson (R)76%
Cindy Holscher (D)23%

$65.0K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$504.1K Vol.

FL-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 10-15%28%
Republican 5-10%25%

$23.8K Vol.

OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat 20-25%31%
Democrat 15-20%28%

$31.8K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez42%
Jon Ossoff36%

$76.9K Vol.

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

≤46 and ≤19229%
47–49 and 193–20725%

$78.5K Vol.

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

10%chance

$147.8K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase65%
No change33%

$96.9K Vol.annual

Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?

11%chance

$2.7K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

27%chance

$21.3K Vol.2 months left

MS-02 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Democrat 30-35%33%
Democrat 25-30%33%

$22.2K Vol.

Georgia Senate Election Winner

Jon Ossoff (D) 96%
Mike Collins (R)4%

$236.3K Vol.

Louisiana Senate Election: Turnout

1.4M-1.5M35%
1.5M-1.6M19%

$18.8K Vol.

Richmond Mayoral Election

Rob Howard47%
Kash Heed30%

$39.6K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

37.0+>99%
36.8+>99%

$21.6K Vol.weekly

KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 25-30%23%
Republican 20-25%22%

$30.3K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

160-17947%
140-15944%

$5.1K Vol.daily

MI-03 House Election Winner

$57.9K Vol.

CA-07 House Election Winner (by individual)

Doris Matsui61%
Mai Vang36%

$28.1K Vol.

Rio Grande do Norte Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Cadu wins45%
Allyson 3-6%24%

$11.4K Vol.

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$24.7K Vol.

PA-01 House Election Winner

Brian Fitzpatrick (R)63%
Bob Harvie (D)39%

$38.6K Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

10%chance

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

2026 Williamson County Judge Election Winner

Heather Jefts63%
Steven Snell30%

$25.5K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

25%chance

$3.9M Vol.18 days left

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Netanyahu out by...?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Senate control favorite on November 2?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

Macron out by...?

Sullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?

Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?

Osborn flips Ricketts for Nebraska Senate by November 2?