Politics

119 events

Brazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro85%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva14%
$181.6M Vol.

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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.3M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1796%

$12.6M Vol.monthly

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

260-27926%
280-29926%

$1.9M Vol.weekly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen44%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.8M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

90-114>99%
115-139<1%

$620.6K Vol.daily

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3140%

$40.0M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.4M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.1M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu94%
Ilie Bolojan1%

$5.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

240-25914%
260-27914%

$317.2K Vol.weekly

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an64%
Puma Shen36%

$1.1M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom14%

$1.3B Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$154.9K Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.6M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 31<1%

$73.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$434.2K Vol.Ended

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.5M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Donald Trump41%

$1.5M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.4M Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202718%

$3.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$595.8K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.17 days left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović23%

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$258.5K Vol.20 days left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$240.5K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3138%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3031%

$1.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202744%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202820%
December 31, 202713%

$682.8K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)94%
Bruce Blakeman (R)6%

$226.8K Vol.

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Jocelyn Benson (D)95%
John James (R)4%

$308.1K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$192.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$233.4K Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)87%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$259.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23914%
200-21914%

$54.5K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$174.5K Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow73%
Brad Bradford26%

$374.4K Vol.

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$87.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$558.8K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%61%
≥ 4.5%21%

$7.1M Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland16%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202713%

$720.7K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD77%
Other10%

$82.9K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 319%

$362.6K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$96.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$786.7K Vol.47 days left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3033%

$335.3K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$216.5K Vol.17 days left

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.6M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Kaitlan Collins89%

$132.0K Vol.monthly

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202836%
December 31, 202716%

$713.4K Vol.

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

NH-02 House Election Winner

$41.7K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Shit / Ass79%
Nevada79%

$20.0K Vol.

TX-08 House Election Winner

$54.9K Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$88.2K Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$416.5K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)6%

$105.5K Vol.

Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez73%
Jon Ossoff14%

$66.5K Vol.

Kansas Senate Election Winner

Roger Marshall (R)63%
Adam Hamilton (D)38%

$904.4K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$121.4K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3120%
October 316%

$49.3K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)96%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$73.5K Vol.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

93%chance

$26.4K Vol.10 days left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$783.1K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD91%
UDMR19%

$67.0K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202722%

$224.7K Vol.

New Mexico Governor Election Winner

Deb Haaland (D)96%
Gregg Hull (R)6%

$65.8K Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$664.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula59%
Flavio Bolsonaro42%

$74.2K Vol.

$885.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19941%
200+41%

$50.5K Vol.daily

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.5K Vol.17 days left

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$22.1K Vol.

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%58%
Remain 60–80%27%

$29.6K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

40-6441%
65-8934%

$21.8K Vol.daily

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$167.4K Vol.2 months left

MO-04 House Election Winner

Mark Alford (R)96%
Jordan Herrera (D)3%

$73.2K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+99%

$16.9K Vol.weekly

Minnesota Attorney General Election Winner

Keith Ellison (D)76%
Ronald J. Schutz (R)23%

$16.8K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3112%
October 313%

$10.5K Vol.

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

$360.8K Vol.

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Paxton 0-3%31%
Talarico 0-3%30%

$30.9K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+93%
960-9994%

$373.0K Vol.daily

Next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Elif Eralp73%
Stefan Evers26%

$236.0K Vol.

2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?

Jean-Luc Mélenchon94%
Marine Le Pen92%

$550.3K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Coal / Diesel83%
Shit / Ass73%

$9.2K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Oklahoma Governor Election Winner

Mike Mazzei (R)91%
Cyndi Munson (D)9%

$43.5K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$53.8K Vol.1 day left

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)69%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$85.7K Vol.

Politics

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?