Geopolitics

$74.4M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.8M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
December 3113%

$27.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3137%
November 3019%

$1.5M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$713.9K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 18>99%
October 2197%

$2.0M Vol.

$17.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$435.4K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3131%
November 3021%

$2.0M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.3M Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.7M Vol.15 days left

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

$44.2M Vol.2 months left

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3130%
November 3027%

$415.8K Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$20.0M Vol.

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202724%
December 319%

$316.9K Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$76.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3031%
October 3114%

$157.1K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL21%

$605.6K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$41.1K Vol.15 days left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202721%
December 3114%

$5.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1698%
October 1992%

$561.3K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3133%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3131%
November 3023%

$3.1M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$250.4K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3173%
November 3052%

$585.7K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China73%
No meeting by December 3125%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$130.9K Vol.15 days left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$843.8K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202636%
November 30, 202624%

$751.4K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$2.4M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2845%
Yoram Cohen12%

$59.1K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3132%
October 313%

$231.1K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 319%

$390.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1794%
October 1878%

$303.6K Vol.monthly

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202763%
December 3134%

$77.4K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia16%
Russia10%

$107.8K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202749%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3177%
November 3075%

$403.9K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$613.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3129%

$126.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$50.1K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

25%chance

$517.4K Vol.2 months left

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202760%
January 15, 202746%

$861.8K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+18%

$921.3K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

59%chance

$79.4K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin76%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka31%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.5K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$279.3K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

$477.8K Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff33%
Jared Kushner32%

$1.5M Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela11%
Kuwait7%

$912.7K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3165%
Qatar14%

$163.3K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3066%
October 3144%

$13.0K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20942%
170-18934%

$4.5K Vol.weekly

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$751.0K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1630%
11-1325%

$11.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$69.7K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2955%
30-3422%

$47.7K Vol.monthly

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3092%
November 1578%

$13.1K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2934%
20-2434%

$14.1K Vol.weekly

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18950%
190-20943%

$10.8K Vol.weekly

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202736%
June 30, 202726%

$8.5M Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$406.4K Vol.2 months left

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$65.1K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3168%
October 2220%

$2.9K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$19.7K Vol.1 year left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$147.8K Vol.2 months left

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

10%chance

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3114%
October 317%

$100.1K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.8K Vol.

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

266%
321%

$7.7K Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1890%
October 1790%

$158.7K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: October

95%chance

$13.9K Vol.15 days left

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 318%

$3.5M Vol.

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

$157.2K Vol.2 months left

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$505.8K Vol.8 months left

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$560.0K Vol.

EU dissolves before 2027?

$183.1K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

18%chance

$274.0K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$12.5K Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

$2.9K Vol.15 days left

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

$115.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

$21.3K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3121%

$463.8K Vol.

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

$76.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3070%
October 3123%

$19.3K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2032%
30-3421%

$2.9K Vol.weekly

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$641.9K Vol.

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3185%
October 3137%

$26.2K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$169.0K Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$299.1K Vol.

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$99.5K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$175.8K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$117.4K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 881%
October 1280%

$887.5K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3117%
October 313%

$62.4K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$850.1K Vol.15 days left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$305.2K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3161%
October 2022%

$6.9K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 317%
October 311%

$1.1M Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-592%
5-104%

$25.0K Vol.monthly

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 1193%
October 593%

$46.9K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

17%chance

$43.7K Vol.15 days left

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.0K Vol.2 months left

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

December 3112%
October 31<1%

$40.4K Vol.

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

14%chance

$24.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

529%
428%

$10.9K Vol.

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

$4.8K Vol.15 days left

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

86%chance

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 307%
October 315%

$23.3K Vol.

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

23%chance

$15.3K Vol.2 months left

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10071%
1k-2.5k18%

$303.2K Vol.

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$562.2K Vol.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$170.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$288.8K Vol.2 months left

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$408.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%36%
16-18%25%

$6.0K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$156.6K Vol.2 months left

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3182%
November 3057%

$41.9K Vol.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt11%
Yemen9%

$80.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

$568.0K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 896%

$116.1K Vol.monthly

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

$183.9K Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3130%
October 3112%

$65.5K Vol.

China coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$164.3K Vol.

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

$4.9K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202718%
December 31, 20266%

$608.0K Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

$766.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election called by...?

$98.1K Vol.2 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$381.6K Vol.2 months left

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

$178.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman25%
Dario Amodei17%

$56.0K Vol.monthly

Russia coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202713%
December 31, 20263%

$148.9K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

$126.3K Vol.2 months left

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan51%
Rafael Grossi23%

$225.8K Vol.

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 317%
October 312%

$4.8K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha16%

$46.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

$535.2K Vol.2 months left

$7.8K Vol.15 days left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2680%
September 2973%

$214.7K Vol.monthly

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+72%
328%

$36.1K Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

462%
516%

$7.6M Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3189%
October 3143%

$8.3K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+28%
20+8%

$5.0K Vol.monthly

Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by...?

44%chance

$25.2K Vol.2 months left

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning5%
Li Xi5%

$253.3K Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-870%
9-1015%

$14.4K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20269%

$263.1K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1550%
October 3122%

$6.8K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

$637.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3183%
October 152%

$11.5K Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Ursula von der Leyen97%
Friedrich Merz96%

$213.5K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202734%

$403.9K Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3114%
October 152%

$40.6K Vol.

Russia reinstates diesel export ban by October 31?

$1.6K Vol.15 days left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.8K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2328%
20-2119%

$19.7K Vol.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$27.9K Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202732%
December 31, 202614%

$4.3K Vol.

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$252.1K Vol.

Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?

$5.8K Vol.15 days left

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<464%
4-636%

$11.8K Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

$862.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3124%
October 319%

$4.4K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$219.1K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2018%
September 2617%

$122.7K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

6-736%
4-531%

$12.4K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2193%
September 2993%

$183.6K Vol.monthly

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

6-739%
8-937%

$5.3K Vol.

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

October 3190%
November 3082%

$11.7K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$16.4K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$7.1K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

$287.1K Vol.2 months left

How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

<845%
8-1133%

$241.0 Vol.weekly

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$5.4K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE33%
Turkey22%

$34.4K Vol.

Prime Minister of Australia after next election?

Anthony Albanese43%
Pauline Hanson24%

$34.0K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by...?

$4.9K Vol.2 months left

US announces military base in Israel in 2026?

$1.8K Vol.2 months left

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3174%
October 3124%

$1.8K Vol.

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

$19.3K Vol.2 months left

Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?

$5.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3141%
October 2229%

$150.0 Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3128%
October 316%

$330.0K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2837%
Yoav Ben-Tzur24%

$15.2K Vol.

US x Russia military clash by...?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.2K Vol.2 months left

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3132%
October 317%

$183.8K Vol.

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$6.1K Vol.

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$408.7K Vol.

Will Israel annex any territory by...?

$94.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by...?

December 31, 202719%
June 30, 202713%

$5.0K Vol.daily

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-937%
6-732%

$7.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

30%chance

$95.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

10+32%
6-728%

$8.2K Vol.

Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?

$44.0K Vol.15 days left

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 308%
October 313%

$45.4K Vol.

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

$990.9 Vol.15 days left

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

8-936%
12-1329%

$6.8K Vol.

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Mark Rutte45%
Ursula von der Leyen38%

$565.7K Vol.

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

$148.3K Vol.2 months left

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

$226.1K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

$31.0K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...?

$34.1K Vol.2 months left

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$77.8K Vol.2 months left

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↓ $4.3047%
↑ $4.5044%

$1.3K Vol.monthly

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?

22%chance

$13.5K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

$154.8K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan14%
Germany14%

$681.3K Vol.annual

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

$106.9K Vol.2 months left

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$189.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.4K Vol.15 days left

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

March 3122%
December 315%

$1.4M Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

$104.8K Vol.2 months left

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

$235.1K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv14%

$50.6K Vol.

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

$689.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?

$43.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$37.5K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US28%
Italy19%

$51.3K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu # of seats?

8-948%
6-723%

$5.8K Vol.

Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Xiaomi21%
ByteDance17%

$126.4K Vol.

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$63.6K Vol.2 months left

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

$36.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.9K Vol.2 months left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

$326.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$12.7K Vol.

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Russia strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?

August 2194%
August 2894%

$9.4K Vol.

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

400-500k54%
500-600k12%

$130.6K Vol.annual

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

$56.1K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

$70.4K Vol.2 months left

Erdoğan out by...?

December 31, 202716%
December 31, 20264%

$649.3K Vol.

Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?

December 3145%
October 3124%

$505.1 Vol.

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$7.1K Vol.

Modi out by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$26.5K Vol.8 months left

Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?

14%chance

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election held by...?

$239.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

$92.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

$448.5K Vol.2 months left

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

$12.5K Vol.15 days left

EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?

December 3110%
October 31<1%

$3.6K Vol.

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

$44.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?

93%chance

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by...?

20%chance

$36.0K Vol.2 months left

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$87.6K Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

89%chance

$173.3K Vol.2 months left

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

$198.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Canada applies for full EU membership by...?

December 31, 202710%
December 31, 20261%

$1.7K Vol.

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

$15.2K Vol.2 months left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

29%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

$191.9K Vol.2 months left

Saudi troops enter Taiz by...?

December 3114%
October 312%

$15.4K Vol.

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

$42.5K Vol.2 months left

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$12.5K Vol.

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

December 3128%
November 3019%

$3.9K Vol.

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

$113.7K Vol.2 months left

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

$198.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027?

$53.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?

$317.7 Vol.2 months left

Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?

$38.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?

$167.5K Vol.2 months left

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

$161.0K Vol.

Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

1%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

$152.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

$397.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

25%chance

$68.4K Vol.2 months left

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

$90.8K Vol.2 months left

US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?

10%chance

$40.4K Vol.2 months left

NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?

$18.7K Vol.2 months left

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?