All markets
Will Ricardo Ruiz Velasco be arrested in 2026?
16%chance
- Yes15.5%
Outcomes
- Yes16%
16.0¢ per share
- No84%
84.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 15.5¢Spread 15¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 8¢ | 20 | $1.60 |
| 6¢ | 55.36 | $3.32 |
| 5¢ | 65 | $3.25 |
| 3¢ | 38.76 | $1.16 |
| 2¢ | 725 | $14.50 |
| 1¢ | 1,469.91 | $14.70 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 23¢ | 9.5 | $2.19 |
| 24¢ | 9.6 | $2.30 |
| 26¢ | 10.5 | $2.73 |
| 30¢ | 40 | $12.00 |
| 51¢ | 14.28 | $7.28 |
| 52¢ | 30 | $15.60 |
| 88¢ | 30 | $26.40 |
| 94¢ | 9.03 | $8.49 |
| 95¢ | 20 | $19.00 |
| 96¢ | 5 | $4.80 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.