All markets
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
6%chance
- Yes5.6%
Outcomes
- Yes6%
5.7¢ per share
- No94%
94.3¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 5.5¢Spread 3.4¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8¢ | 76.6 | $2.91 |
| 2.7¢ | 10.57 | $0.29 |
| 2.6¢ | 59 | $1.53 |
| 2.5¢ | 576 | $14.40 |
| 2.4¢ | 381 | $9.14 |
| 2.3¢ | 10 | $0.23 |
| 2.2¢ | 876.58 | $19.28 |
| 2.1¢ | 8,824.78 | $185.32 |
| 2¢ | 6.76 | $0.14 |
| 1.9¢ | 10 | $0.19 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 7.2¢ | 64.07 | $4.61 |
| 7.3¢ | 23.3 | $1.70 |
| 7.7¢ | 25 | $1.93 |
| 7.8¢ | 233.26 | $18.19 |
| 7.9¢ | 900 | $71.10 |
| 8.2¢ | 300 | $24.60 |
| 8.4¢ | 1,009.16 | $84.77 |
| 8.8¢ | 5 | $0.44 |
| 10.5¢ | 1,000 | $105.00 |
| 10.7¢ | 311.98 | $33.38 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.