Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3181%
$11.5M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026?

340-35956%
360-37936%

$3.5M Vol.weekly

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen42%
Édouard Philippe22%

$149.9M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 315%
October 311%

$73.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep62%
R Senate, D House28%

$22.5M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$296.8K Vol.Ended

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3168%
December 3144%

$39.4M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot47%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.8M Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.7M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

220-23923%
240-25920%

$1.0M Vol.weekly

Brazil Presidential Election

$180.4M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$625.6K Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.6M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić70%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.1M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)36%

$3.4M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Ohio enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202722%

$566.1K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.8M Vol.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

33%chance

$526.7K Vol.9 months left

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

65-8949%
40-6440%

$70.3K Vol.daily

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

20%chance

$176.4K Vol.19 days left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.0M Vol.annual

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party38%

$6.4M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202755%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202746%
June 30, 202733%

$2.9M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an66%
Puma Shen35%

$871.8K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202718%

$691.7K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3148%
November 3041%

$300.6K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)30%

$1.6M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3118%
October 318%

$217.0K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3111%

$27.2M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200-21917%
180-19914%

$79.9K Vol.weekly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$26.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson82%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.0M Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2443%
25-2926%

$495.3K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202721%

$743.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$23.2K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu58%
Sorin Grindeanu14%

$4.9M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

100-11948%
120-13934%

$66.2K Vol.daily

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$28.8M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?

Joe / Biden 10+ times>99%
Hell 10+ times>99%

$33.0K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.6M Vol.2 months left

MO-02 House Election Winner

Ann Wagner (R)77%
Fred Wellman (D)23%

$65.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$111.9K Vol.

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)96%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$52.1K Vol.

GA-11 House Election Winner

John Cowan (R)96%
Chris Harden (D)1%

$75.8K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula81%
Flavio Bolsonaro20%

$40.9K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.2M Vol.19 days left

Politics

2026 MidtermsPredictions

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?