Trump

$12.6M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change19%

$3.6M Vol.monthly

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3131%
November 3022%

$2.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$322.5K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

$605.6K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%28%
Below 4.6%11%

$389.2K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3128%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$248.1K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee85%

$28.5K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China73%
No meeting by December 3124%

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$2.4M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3128%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase34%

$508.2K Vol.monthly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+22%
120-13916%

$20.5K Vol.daily

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202635%
November 30, 202624%

$742.5K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202743%
Susie Wiles15%

$117.8K Vol.annual

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%15%

$7.1M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

23%chance

$512.5K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie19%
Stefan Brodie17%

$518.5K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

160-17970%
180-19920%

$58.7K Vol.daily

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$385.4K Vol.3 days left

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

31%chance

$13.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3177%
November 3076%

$400.0K Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

36.0+96%
37.0+90%

$6.0K Vol.weekly

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

205-20927%
Below 19024%

$331.6K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff34%
Jared Kushner33%

$1.5M Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+19%

$921.3K Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem37%
Susie Wiles35%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 318%

$60.4K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1998%
October 1797%

$45.1K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3165%
Qatar14%

$163.3K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?

Massie / Rand89%
Truck71%

$4.1K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

180-19923%
200+22%

$34.0K Vol.daily

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

$751.0K Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$769.3K Vol.2 months left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+72%
38.2–38.314%

$6.9K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

24%chance

$19.6K Vol.1 year left

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Geoffrey Pyatt19%
Nicole Malliotakis19%

$6.0K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff96%
Gavin Newsom93%

$136.4K Vol.monthly

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

37.0+99%
37.2+99%

$20.3K Vol.weekly

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

$274.0K Vol.2 months left

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen97%

$213.4K Vol.monthly

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

18%chance

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro93%
Delcy Rodriguez62%

$75.2K Vol.monthly

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

30%chance

$84.7K Vol.2 months left

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

$259.9K Vol.2 months left

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement64%
Likud37%

$66.7K Vol.

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

December 317%
November 304%

$31.5K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%87%
↓ 36%67%

$9.4K Vol.

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

December 3187%
October 3145%

$1.9K Vol.monthly

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10072%
1k-2.5k22%

$303.2K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$665.9K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$288.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202733%
December 31, 20265%

$34.4K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$13.5K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

86%chance

$25.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

21%chance

$206.5K Vol.2 months left

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan21%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$502.2K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro22%
Romeu Zema<1%

$55.9K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

25%chance

$33.3K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

$32.8K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Mexico by...?

$766.4K Vol.2 months left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

$4.9K Vol.15 days left

What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?

Good Day94%
Good Question82%

$1.4K Vol.monthly

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$548.8K Vol.9 months left

$53.9K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

350%
226%

$25.2K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?

936%
825%

$33.5K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+29%
20+14%

$5.0K Vol.monthly

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

31%chance

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

15%chance

$35.1K Vol.2 months left

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

$178.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3116%
November 307%

$11.0K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman28%
Dario Amodei16%

$56.0K Vol.monthly

How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

10-1293%
13-157%

$64.0K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Obama arrested before 2027?

$23.6K Vol.2 months left

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$184.4K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?

1070%
11+19%

$14.1K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

4876%
4714%

$28.4K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$508.3K Vol.

Next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?

No HR in 202652%
Maurizio Massari28%

$29.0K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
North Carolina>99%

$26.0K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

$2.5K Vol.1 day left

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines37%
Anduril16%

$216.2K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3189%
October 3143%

$8.2K Vol.

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3139%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

November 3084%
October 3171%

$8.2K Vol.annual

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.8K Vol.2 months left

Weed rescheduled by...?

$209.2K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$219.1K Vol.2 months left

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Kansas96%
Utah57%

$329.7K Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

93%chance

$1.1K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico17%
Israel14%

$401.9K Vol.annual

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Rigged50%
Fool50%

$1.1K Vol.weekly

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

1141%
1026%

$24.1K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202757%

$1.1M Vol.

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

1%chance

$228.6K Vol.18 days left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 18?

48%chance

$266.8 Vol.2 days left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 308%
December 314%

$3.4K Vol.

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.5K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

835%
731%

$11.2K Vol.

Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026?

$4.5K Vol.2 months left

Venezuelan oil added to Strategic Petroleum Reserve by...?

$5.7K Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M55%
270M6%

$32.9K Vol.monthly

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 19?

22%chance

$150.2 Vol.3 days left

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Adam Telle35%
Sean Parnell16%

$4.6K Vol.

US x Russia military clash by...?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

$174.2K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?

716%
12+13%

$13.3K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?

1124%
1223%

$18.1K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

084%
114%

$1.6K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%26%
4.25%22%

$23.2K Vol.

Senate passes Clarity Act by...?

$28.5K Vol.15 days left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

13%chance

$31.0K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan14%
Germany14%

$681.3K Vol.annual

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?

2035%
1931%

$10.3K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?

553%
422%

$26.0K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$77.8K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

$154.8K Vol.2 months left

Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?

$51.0K Vol.2 months left

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

$670.6 Vol.15 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.4K Vol.15 days left

Trump meets with Mark Carney by...?

$1.5K Vol.15 days left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?

$104.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

32%chance

$1.9K Vol.Ended

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3119%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

CNN flies with Trump by..?

13%chance

$11.5K Vol.15 days left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?

545%
6+21%

$17.2K Vol.

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4-696%
7-93%

$104.7K Vol.

Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?

December 3145%
November 309%

$26.8K Vol.

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune47%
Chuck Schumer36%

$11.5K Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 23?

38.5–38.922%
38.0–38.421%

$60.0 Vol.weekly

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$63.6K Vol.2 months left

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

$53.5K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?

166%
231%

$12.4K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

639%
7+27%

$31.8K Vol.

FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?

$57.9K Vol.2 months left

Netanyahu arrested by…?

$8.3K Vol.2 months left

Mamdani visits the White House by...?

December 3129%
October 3113%

$1.6K Vol.

Will Alberta join the US?

$2.2M Vol.2 months left

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

400-500k54%
500-600k12%

$130.6K Vol.annual

Russia nuclear test by...?

$122.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

$70.4K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

12%chance

$12.5K Vol.15 days left

Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?

$25.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?

93%chance

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?

345%
432%

$10.0K Vol.

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

12%chance

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

1%chance

$3.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Tim Walz resign by...?

$68.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

<1%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

$167.4K Vol.2 months left

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer47%
John Thune26%

$172.8K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

J.D. Vance52%
Marco Rubio23%

$21.7K Vol.

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3116%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

What foods will Trump mention in October?

Beef67%
Chicken57%

$5.4K Vol.monthly

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

29%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Alcatraz reopened in 2026?

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

12%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say in October?

Weave60%
Six Seven57%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

1%chance

$113.4K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Third Term56%

$11.0K Vol.weekly

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

10%chance

$11.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

$545.4K Vol.2 months left

Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?

$51.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump launch a coin by ___?

10%chance

$96.1K Vol.2 months left

James Comey charges dropped by December 31?

39%chance

$5.4K Vol.2 months left

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

$163.7K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$99.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?

45%chance

$4.1K Vol.15 days left

US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?

$80.4K Vol.2 months left

Maduro guilty of all counts?

32%chance

$133.2K Vol.1 year left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?

470%
519%

$17.3K Vol.

US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

$45.0K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 16?

39%chance

$0.0 Vol.15 hours left

Will Trump pardon Richard Nixon by December 31?

$175.6 Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?

$2.9K Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?

25%chance

$107.7 Vol.3 months left

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

8%chance

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

11%chance

$2.1K Vol.15 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$4.7K Vol.15 days left

America.gov removed by October 31?

$5.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit any pandas in 2026?

10%chance

$853.2 Vol.2 months left

CNN denied entry from White House again by...?

35%chance

$1.4 Vol.15 days left

Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?

21%chance

$427.4 Vol.15 days left

U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

5–15%79%
15–25%8%

$10.1K Vol.

Trump meets with Netanyahu by...?

December 3155%
October 3115%

$6.4K Vol.

Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

December 3114%
October 313%

$2.1K Vol.

Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?

$12.7K Vol.5 months left

Hung Cao confirmed as Secretary of the Navy by...?

December 3137%
November 3025%

$3.1K Vol.

RFK Jr. Out by October 31?