Geopolitics

$15.0M Vol.2 months left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3130%
November 3026%

$415.7K Vol.

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202724%
December 319%

$316.9K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3010%

$17.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202764%

$8.7M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$20.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.8M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.4M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.2M Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3029%
October 3120%

$156.9K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL21%

$605.6K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$202.3K Vol.2 months left

$41.1K Vol.15 days left

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

9%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$126.1K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3176%
November 3053%

$583.2K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 3110%

$389.5K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

23%chance

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.1M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3133%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3130%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$248.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$72.2K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia16%
Russia10%

$107.4K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$836.4K Vol.45 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$130.3K Vol.15 days left

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China73%
No meeting by December 3124%

$1.8M Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$182.0K Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.4K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$2.4M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1889%
October 2889%

$158.1K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$18.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3133%
October 313%

$230.5K Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202720%
December 3112%

$4.9M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1793%
October 1993%

$547.2K Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1975%
October 2073%

$302.6K Vol.monthly

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$515.1K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

24%chance

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance

$843.8K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3128%

$125.6K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202635%
November 30, 202624%

$742.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202763%
December 3134%

$77.4K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$613.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Yoram Cohen13%

$51.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$48.0K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202761%
January 15, 202744%

$861.8K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3177%
November 3076%

$400.0K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$504.1K Vol.8 months left

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$849.9K Vol.15 days left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202749%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot16%

$69.7K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$477.8K Vol.2 months left

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff34%
Jared Kushner33%

$1.5M Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+19%

$921.3K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

60%chance

$79.3K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

30-3427%
25-2926%

$13.9K Vol.weekly

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$304.7K Vol.

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

8%chance

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$641.6K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$65.1K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela11%
Kuwait7%

$912.5K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3165%
Qatar14%

$163.3K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3066%
October 3148%

$13.0K Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka33%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.8K Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20945%
170-18934%

$4.4K Vol.weekly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$278.1K Vol.2 months left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

9%chance

$751.0K Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.5K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2955%
30-3421%

$47.2K Vol.monthly

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-592%
5-104%

$25.0K Vol.monthly

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202735%
June 30, 202725%

$8.5M Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1632%
11-1326%

$10.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202759%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

24%chance

$19.6K Vol.1 year left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18947%
190-20933%

$10.2K Vol.weekly

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3094%
November 1563%

$12.2K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3112%
October 317%

$99.3K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$560.0K Vol.

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?

$16.1K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

9%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?

$157.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

$274.0K Vol.2 months left

$21.3K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3184%
October 3121%

$463.8K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

18%chance

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$12.5K Vol.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$37.5K Vol.2 months left

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

263%
322%

$7.3K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?

$115.4K Vol.2 months left

EU dissolves before 2027?

$183.0K Vol.2 months left

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

17%chance

$2.8K Vol.15 days left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3156%
October 2213%

$1.8K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3071%
October 3125%

$19.3K Vol.

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3032%
October 314%

$99.5K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$175.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

13%chance

$7.8K Vol.15 days left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3118%
October 312%

$62.4K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$117.4K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 1193%
October 593%

$46.9K Vol.monthly

NATO downs another Russian drone by...?

19%chance

$4.8K Vol.15 days left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 317%
October 311%

$1.1M Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 880%
October 1280%

$887.1K Vol.monthly

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

86%chance

$26.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

December 3110%
October 31<1%

$40.4K Vol.

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3182%
October 3127%

$24.9K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3160%
October 2022%

$6.7K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2038%
30-3419%

$2.4K Vol.weekly

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

13%chance

$24.2K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

540%
624%

$10.9K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Svitle by...?

17%chance

$43.5K Vol.15 days left

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3128%
October 319%

$12.7K Vol.

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE31%
Turkey19%

$34.3K Vol.

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

$170.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 316%
October 154%

$23.3K Vol.

China ballistic missile launch by December 31?

22%chance

$15.3K Vol.2 months left

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

1-10071%
1k-2.5k21%

$303.2K Vol.

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$562.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$288.8K Vol.2 months left

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$408.0K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha16%

$46.6K Vol.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt11%
Yemen9%

$80.8K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%42%
<16%28%

$6.0K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Mexico by...?

$766.4K Vol.2 months left

China coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$164.3K Vol.

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

$4.9K Vol.15 days left

Prime Minister of Australia after next election?

Anthony Albanese44%
Pauline Hanson25%

$34.0K Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3130%
October 3111%

$65.4K Vol.

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning6%
Li Xi5%

$253.2K Vol.

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$156.3K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.9K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 599%
October 896%

$115.6K Vol.monthly

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3114%
October 153%

$40.6K Vol.

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+29%
20+14%

$5.0K Vol.monthly

Ukraine election called by...?

$98.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

$404.1K Vol.2 months left

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

October 3188%
November 3084%

$11.7K Vol.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

$178.1K Vol.2 months left

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1550%
October 3132%

$6.8K Vol.monthly

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 318%

$3.5M Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan51%
Rafael Grossi23%

$225.8K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3143%

$8.2K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Belgium12%
Finland11%

$763.0K Vol.

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

463%
516%

$7.6M Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<466%
4-634%

$11.7K Vol.

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3139%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 308%
December 314%

$3.4K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2342%
20-2120%

$19.7K Vol.

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20267%

$607.3K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3182%
November 3065%

$41.3K Vol.

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3181%
October 152%

$11.5K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2193%
September 2993%

$183.5K Vol.monthly

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3126%
October 317%

$252.1K Vol.

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3114%
October 31<1%

$407.0K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan18%
Germany15%

$678.1K Vol.annual

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

16%chance

$3.4K Vol.2 months left

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

14%chance

$25.9K Vol.2 months left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

$2.1K Vol.15 days left

Ukraine lowers conscription age by...?

March 3119%
December 316%

$4.0K Vol.

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$181.9K Vol.

Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?

December 3156%
October 3138%

$200.0 Vol.

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

$449.2K Vol.5 months left

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?

16%chance

$35.9K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 314%
October 313%

$6.8K Vol.

China x India military clash by...?

$222.1K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202720%
December 31, 20265%

$172.3K Vol.

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico20%
Vietnam13%

$401.6K Vol.annual

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

43%chance

$1.9K Vol.15 days left

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

$337.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

$974.4 Vol.15 days left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$188.8K Vol.

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?