All markets
Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026?
16%chance
- Yes16%
Outcomes
- Yes16%
16.0¢ per share
- No84%
84.0¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 16¢Spread 6¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 13¢ | 60 | $7.80 |
| 12¢ | 18.28 | $2.19 |
| 11¢ | 28.18 | $3.10 |
| 8¢ | 5 | $0.40 |
| 7¢ | 15.72 | $1.10 |
| 6¢ | 40 | $2.40 |
| 5¢ | 454.89 | $22.74 |
| 3¢ | 27.9 | $0.84 |
| 2¢ | 780 | $15.60 |
| 1¢ | 1,589.6 | $15.90 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 19¢ | 10 | $1.90 |
| 26¢ | 20 | $5.20 |
| 27¢ | 15 | $4.05 |
| 39¢ | 50 | $19.50 |
| 93¢ | 8.52 | $7.92 |
| 94¢ | 40 | $37.60 |
| 98¢ | 105.81 | $103.69 |
| 99¢ | 107.11 | $106.04 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.