Politics

140 events

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?
- December 31, 202828%
- December 31, 202713%
$6.0M Vol.

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Brazil Presidential Election

$182.6M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

320-33934%
340-35930%

$2.8M Vol.weekly

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$716.8M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$17.6M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%

$46.6M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1698%

$13.1M Vol.monthly

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%
Édouard Philippe20%

$151.1M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3160%
December 3138%

$40.3M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%

$1.3B Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.7M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio14%

$711.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$448.6K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$1.3M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

340-35913%
320-33913%

$512.1K Vol.weekly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%

$23.4M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar61%
Likud40%

$789.6K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.5M Vol.16 days left

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi36%
Steve Witkoff35%

$1.5M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

8%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$227.8K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu91%
Ilie Bolojan2%

$5.3M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%

$3.7M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 311%

$73.5M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez23%

$98.3M Vol.

Nevada Governor Election Winner

Aaron Ford (D)53%
Joe Lombardo (R)48%

$422.7K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3032%

$1.4M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%
Ulf Kristersson18%

$10.2M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

260-27912%
240-25911%

$100.4K Vol.weekly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$1.9M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić69%
Ilija Srdanović20%

$1.3M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3014%

$637.5K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$816.4K Vol.46 days left

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202747%
Netanyahu - Israel PM28%

$1.1M Vol.annual

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place

Together69%
The Democrats23%

$53.7K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá

Flavio Bolsonaro80%
Lula19%

$91.4K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?

65-8939%
90-11424%

$56.0K Vol.daily

NY-23 House Election Winner

Nick Langworthy (R)97%
Aaron Gies (D)2%

$88.1K Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$261.4K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez16%

$1.9M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

New York Governor Election Winner

Kathy Hochul (D)95%
Bruce Blakeman (R)5%

$241.9K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$268.5K Vol.19 days left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$203.7K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202824%
December 31, 202717%

$252.2K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202625%

$733.7K Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an64%
Puma Shen35%

$1.1M Vol.

MN-06 House Election Winner

Tom Emmer (R)96%
Doug Chapin (D)3%

$94.4K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Maine Senate Election Winner

Troy Jackson (D)60%
Susan Collins (R)42%

$2.3M Vol.

$29.3M Vol.

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

20-2442%
25-2926%

$523.3K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$848.5K Vol.16 days left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$295.8K Vol.

PA-16 House Election Winner

Mike Kelly (R)94%
Justin Wagner (D)4%

$75.5K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3122%
October 319%

$376.0K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

37%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

OH-14 House Election Winner

David Joyce (R)96%
Maria Jukic (D)2%

$95.9K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas

Lula70%
Flavio Bolsonaro32%

$84.6K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%34%
Below 4.6%13%

$368.4K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$269.0K Vol.

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

Marine Le Pen91%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon42%

$369.0K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%65%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

MD-01 House Election Winner

Andy Harris (R)87%
Dan Schwartz (D)14%

$88.0K Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow69%
Brad Bradford31%

$382.6K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

14%chance

$179.5K Vol.2 months left

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 3110%

$227.4K Vol.

Texas Governor Election Winner

Greg Abbott (R)78%
Gina Hinojosa (D) 23%

$563.1K Vol.

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Nithya Raman53%
Karen Bass46%

$15.3M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3027%

$346.8K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3119%
October 317%

$34.9K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen87%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon7%

$26.2K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland13%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

$834.7K Vol.2 months left

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

$785.6K Vol.

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei54%
Axel Kicillof33%

$852.7K Vol.

NE-02 House Election Winner

$60.0K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$131.0K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee81%

$10.3K Vol.

Michigan Senate Election Winner

Abdul El-Sayed (D)71%
Mike Rogers (R)31%

$1.7M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets in October 2026?

1000+95%
960-9993%

$381.0K Vol.daily

Alaska Senate and Governor Combo

Dems sweep70%
Reps sweep18%

$42.6K Vol.

Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?

PSD87%
PSD + UDMR8%

$90.5K Vol.

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)91%
Scott Colom (D)10%

$152.6K Vol.

Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Pete Ricketts (R)73%
Independent28%

$620.8K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$163.3K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202712%

$692.1K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202749%
June 30, 202736%

$2.9M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3133%
October 315%

$6.7M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3120%

$1.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

Lula68%
Flavio Bolsonaro31%

$72.9K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3058%
October 3138%

$118.1K Vol.

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$59.0K Vol.13 hours left

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)39%

$1.2M Vol.

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)90%
Zach Lahn (R)12%

$248.4K Vol.

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Iliana Iotova87%
Аndrey Gyurov14%

$1.2M Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon37%
Édouard Philippe30%

$15.8K Vol.

Georgia Governor Election Winner

$198.3K Vol.

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

19%chance

$180.9K Vol.2 months left

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará

Lula83%
Flavio Bolsonaro17%

$50.5K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Blake Moore (R)95%
Peter Crosby (D)5%

$31.0K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$60.7K Vol.

NC-08 House Election Winner

Mark Harris (R)95%
Colby Watson (D)4%

$57.5K Vol.

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ulrich Siegmund76%
Sven Schulze3%

$469.0K Vol.

MI-05 House Election Winner

$37.8K Vol.

TX-23 House Election Winner

$90.0K Vol.

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

7%chance

$302.9K Vol.2 months left

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%55%
Remain 60–80%26%

$32.9K Vol.

TX-22 House Election Winner

$41.2K Vol.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

26%chance

$3.9M Vol.19 days left

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

3%chance

$257.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?

December 3176%
October 313%

$139.4K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

35%chance

$498.1 Vol.Ended

Which parties will be part of the next government of Romania?

PSD94%
UDMR14%

$71.5K Vol.

Ted Cruz # posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

120-13941%
140-15923%

$10.0K Vol.daily

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

Politics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Netanyahu out by...?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (October 14)

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?