Politics

80 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1598%
- October 3181%
$12.3M Vol.monthly

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Brazil Presidential Election

$181.2M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202717%

$3.9M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

240-25935%
260-27922%

$1.6M Vol.weekly

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep62%
R Senate, D House28%

$22.9M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.4M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Jon Ossoff14%

$1.3B Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$994.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

65-8974%
90-11425%

$377.8K Vol.daily

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 311%

$73.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$216.0K Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.9M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.7M Vol.

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an66%
Puma Shen34%

$1.0M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.3M Vol.

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202711%

$660.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

220-23914%
240-25914%

$223.7K Vol.weekly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%62%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)65%
Ken Paxton (R)37%

$3.6M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.17 days left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3131%
October 3111%

$103.5K Vol.

Alaska Governor Election Winner

$1.5M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić71%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.2M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu83%
Sorin Grindeanu5%

$5.0M Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$405.1K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$235.8K Vol.21 days left

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.4M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Iowa Governor Election Winner

Rob Sand (D)91%
Zach Lahn (R)10%

$239.6K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Joe / Biden 10+ times>99%
Iran 5+ times>99%

$57.8K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$86.8K Vol.

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$119.9K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$154.5K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202743%
Netanyahu - Israel PM32%

$1.0M Vol.annual

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.4M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$268.6K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$338.9K Vol.Ended

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$252.4K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

9%chance

$209.0K Vol.17 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?

December 3132%
October 313%

$1.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23916%
240-25914%

$28.7K Vol.weekly

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$662.8K Vol.2 months left

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$657.8K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$326.9K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202712%

$717.5K Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.6K Vol.

TX-04 House Election Winner

Pat Fallon (R)96%
Jason Pearce (D)2%

$79.1K Vol.

Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202716%

$711.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$46.1K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.8M Vol.

Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

Olivia Chow74%
Brad Bradford27%

$349.3K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3144%

$104.9K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)62%
Jon Husted (R)40%

$1.2M Vol.

MT-01 House Election Winner

Aaron Flint (R)69%
Sam Forstag (D)32%

$85.5K Vol.

North Carolina enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
December 31, 202722%

$221.7K Vol.

KS-04 House Election Winner

Ron Estes (R)95%
Katy Tyndell (D)5%

$105.0K Vol.

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson80%
David Eby20%

$153.6K Vol.

$608.8K Vol.

Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?