Politics

60 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3182%
$12.2M Vol.monthly

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US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$181.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

240-25934%
260-27922%

$1.5M Vol.weekly

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202827%
December 31, 202717%

$3.9M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen43%
Édouard Philippe20%

$150.3M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep62%
R Senate, D House28%

$22.9M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
Jon Ossoff14%

$1.3B Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$919.5K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 12 - October 14, 2026?

65-8956%
90-11439%

$361.1K Vol.daily

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.7M Vol.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%
October 311%

$73.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$207.4K Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance22%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%

$715.9M Vol.

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%

$16.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Louisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202821%
December 31, 202711%

$660.7K Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance49%
Marco Rubio15%

$711.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$148.7K Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

220-23914%
240-25914%

$217.1K Vol.weekly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%59%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson15%

$10.1M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)65%
Ken Paxton (R)37%

$3.6M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.7M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.3M Vol.18 days left

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić71%
Ilija Srdanović17%

$1.2M Vol.

Ohio Governor Election Winner

Amy Acton (D)72%
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)28%

$404.7K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu87%
Sorin Grindeanu4%

$5.0M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3132%
October 3110%

$77.2K Vol.

$239.6K Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%
Republican Party37%

$6.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$84.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202742%
Netanyahu - Israel PM33%

$1.0M Vol.annual

Fall Elections Three-Way: Brazil, Israel, US Senate Combo

$115.4K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3119%
October 317%

$261.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Healthcare96%
Save America Act96%

$42.6K Vol.

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra96%
Steve Hilton4%

$41.9M Vol.

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

$1.2M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola74%
Sen. Dan Sullivan27%

$1.3M Vol.

Minnesota Senate Election Winner

Peggy Flanagan (D)88%
Michele Tafoya (R)13%

$252.4K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

18%chance

$203.9K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$662.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202747%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

220-23916%
200-21914%

$26.1K Vol.weekly

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar59%
Likud42%

$657.8K Vol.

Missouri enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202826%
June 30, 202713%

$717.5K Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo82%
Pedro Sánchez15%

$1.8M Vol.

Oklahoma enacts data center moratorium by...?

December 31, 202825%
December 31, 202721%

$767.6K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$319.2K Vol.Ended

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$324.4K Vol.

Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)