Trump

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1898%

$1.9M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$268.5K Vol.19 days left

Fed Decision in January?

No change57%
25 bps increase36%

$505.2K Vol.monthly

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202625%

$733.7K Vol.

$3.1M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%34%
Below 4.6%13%

$368.4K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%65%
≥ 4.5%23%

$7.1M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 3110%

$227.4K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee81%

$10.3K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3133%
October 315%

$6.7M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China76%
No meeting by December 3120%

$1.8M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+27%
180-19924%

$31.2K Vol.daily

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Dad / Daddy52%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
120-13919%

$11.2K Vol.daily

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

19%chance

$506.5K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.2K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202753%
Susie Wiles9%

$110.7K Vol.annual

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 317%
October 311%

$13.1K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$769.2K Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Nicole Malliotakis22%
Geoffrey Pyatt19%

$3.4K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 314%

$53.5K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff96%
Kaitlan Collins88%

$134.3K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Ursula von der Leyen98%
Friedrich Merz97%

$213.0K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%25%
4.25%20%

$23.2K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

18%chance

$76.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.2+>99%

$18.2K Vol.weekly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19944%
160-17931%

$52.1K Vol.daily

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman38%
Dario Amodei15%

$55.4K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro93%
Dario Amodei68%

$73.9K Vol.monthly

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

32%chance

$6.6K Vol.2 months left

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

13%chance

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$287.8K Vol.2 months left

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

24%chance

$33.2K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%87%
↓ 36%62%

$8.6K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3075%

$394.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$16.9K Vol.1 year left

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

31%chance

$548.1K Vol.9 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3120%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

60%chance

$2.0K Vol.2 days left

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan21%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$501.4K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 16>99%
October 1598%

$40.7K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro17%
Romeu Zema1%

$55.0K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie36%
Daniel Penny26%

$511.4K Vol.

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement67%
Likud34%

$65.4K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

December 3172%
October 3164%

$867.9 Vol.monthly

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

<1%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

10-1292%
13-156%

$63.3K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines35%
Anduril16%

$215.9K Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+61%
37.4–37.520%

$4.3K Vol.weekly

What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?

Good Question94%
Good Day93%

$755.0 Vol.monthly

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$410.6K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time50%
60+27%

$915.8K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$25.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

$27.5K Vol.2 months left

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3139%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

North Carolina>99%
Georgia>99%

$25.5K Vol.

What will Trump say in October?

Weave61%
Neurotic57%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune46%
Chuck Schumer35%

$11.4K Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem34%
Dan Scavino27%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

98%chance

$890.0 Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

4876%
4714%

$28.4K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

1141%
1027%

$23.9K Vol.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

27%chance

$83.5K Vol.2 months left

Obama arrested before 2027?

$747.4K Vol.2 months left

$23.5K Vol.2 months left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

US strike on Mexico by...?

$765.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202759%

$1.1M Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.2K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

082%
116%

$1.5K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$378.9K Vol.4 days left

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$507.8K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan17%
Germany15%

$681.2K Vol.annual

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20919%

$325.7K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?

1070%
11+19%

$13.6K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 309%
December 314%

$3.2K Vol.

Will Alberta join the US?

$2.2M Vol.2 months left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3150%

$7.8K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

12%chance

$42.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 18?

61%chance

$201.6 Vol.3 days left

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

36%63%
35%27%

$164.3K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

71%chance

$111.2K Vol.2 years left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3117%
November 307%

$10.5K Vol.

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$218.8K Vol.2 months left

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

17%chance

$174.1K Vol.2 months left

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$184.1K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

349%
226%

$24.5K Vol.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

11%chance

$34.7K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

834%
731%

$11.1K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

32%chance

$1.9K Vol.Ended

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

4%chance

$87.2K Vol.2 months left

Weed rescheduled by...?

7%chance

$208.8K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

638%
7+28%

$31.7K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

5%chance

$77.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

97%chance

$14.9K Vol.19 days left

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?