Trump

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%33%
Below 4.6%11%

$370.8K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?

Clay90%
Pee-wee / Peewee84%

$17.0K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$445.9K Vol.Ended

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3041%
October 319%

$228.2K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3121%

$1.8M Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3124%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$270.0K Vol.19 days left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$511.1K Vol.2 months left

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22%chance

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

$182.2K Vol.2 months left

$385.1K Vol.4 days left

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Nicole Malliotakis21%
Geoffrey Pyatt21%

$5.5K Vol.

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%chance

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202746%
Susie Wiles14%

$114.0K Vol.annual

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%58%
≥ 4.5%22%

$7.1M Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time62%
60+18%

$919.3K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Mardi Gras60%
Third Term56%

$10.9K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

25%chance

$19.4K Vol.1 year left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19953%
160-17928%

$54.4K Vol.daily

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+28%
180-19924%

$31.5K Vol.daily

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.2K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

$769.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff96%
Kaitlan Collins88%

$135.0K Vol.monthly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
120-13919%

$12.6K Vol.daily

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3179%
November 3076%

$395.8K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$13.1K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro93%
Dario Amodei69%

$74.2K Vol.monthly

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+72%
38.2–38.315%

$5.9K Vol.weekly

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen96%

$213.3K Vol.monthly

Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?

42%chance

$6.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 16>99%
October 2098%

$41.5K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman40%
Dario Amodei20%

$55.4K Vol.monthly

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%25%
4.25%20%

$23.2K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

$287.8K Vol.2 months left

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

24%chance

$33.3K Vol.2 months left

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

31%chance

$548.1K Vol.9 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3120%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.2+99%

$18.8K Vol.weekly

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan21%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$501.5K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%86%
↓ 36%61%

$8.8K Vol.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

13%chance

$84.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Daniel Penny46%
Donald Brodie22%

$511.6K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro18%
Romeu Zema1%

$55.0K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

What will Kevin Warsh say during October Press Conference?

Good Day94%
Good Question94%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?

December 3172%
October 3158%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3128%
October 314%

$54.1K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

10-1292%
13-156%

$63.3K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines36%
Anduril15%

$215.9K Vol.

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$25.3K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 23?

36.0+78%
37.0+74%

$744.9 Vol.weekly

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

59%chance

$2.0K Vol.2 days left

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$410.6K Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Susie Wiles42%
Kristi Noem36%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

North Carolina>99%
Georgia>99%

$25.6K Vol.

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3134%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

What will Trump say in October?

Weave60%
Neurotic57%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement67%
Likud34%

$65.6K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?

1141%
1026%

$23.9K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?

4876%
4714%

$28.4K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

$27.5K Vol.2 months left

Obama arrested before 2027?

$747.4K Vol.2 months left

$23.5K Vol.2 months left

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Michigan?

935%
824%

$33.3K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?

1070%
11+19%

$13.7K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3147%

$8.0K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202733%
December 31, 20265%

$33.8K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202759%

$1.1M Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

97%chance

$990.0 Vol.2 months left

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$507.8K Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19023%
205-20917%

$325.8K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany15%
Japan13%

$681.2K Vol.annual

US strike on Mexico by...?

$765.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

November 3083%
October 3170%

$8.1K Vol.annual

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$184.2K Vol.

Will Alberta join the US?

$2.2M Vol.2 months left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3012%
December 314%

$3.2K Vol.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

$34.7K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Putin52%
Rigged52%

$1.1K Vol.weekly

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+21%
20+8%

$4.6K Vol.monthly

US x China Military clash before 2027?

$218.8K Vol.2 months left

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

16%chance

$174.2K Vol.2 months left

US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?

$42.3K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 18?

62%chance

$206.8 Vol.3 days left

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

$665.1K Vol.2 months left

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

36%64%
35%27%

$164.3K Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3117%
November 307%

$10.5K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

18%chance

$76.9K Vol.2 months left

Next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?

No HR in 202657%
William Ruger20%

$28.7K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

835%
731%

$11.2K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

349%
226%

$24.5K Vol.

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Kansas98%
Utah57%

$329.5K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?

553%
422%

$26.0K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

083%
115%

$1.5K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

32%chance

$1.9K Vol.Ended

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

$799.4K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Florida?

717%
12+12%

$13.2K Vol.

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

$87.2K Vol.2 months left

Weed rescheduled by...?

$208.8K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

638%
7+28%

$31.7K Vol.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

$77.7K Vol.2 months left

Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by...?

December 3145%
November 3010%

$26.8K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

$154.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

$3.2K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

$228.4K Vol.19 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.4K Vol.16 days left

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Mexico17%
Vietnam15%

$401.8K Vol.annual

Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?

22%chance

$18.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Mark Carney by...?

11%chance

$1.4K Vol.16 days left

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune46%
Chuck Schumer37%

$11.4K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?

1123%
1223%

$18.0K Vol.

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

98%chance

$14.9K Vol.19 days left

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

71%chance

$111.2K Vol.2 years left

US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?

14%chance

$45.0K Vol.2 months left

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M60%
270M6%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?

15%chance

$11.0K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Wisconsin?

344%
432%

$9.9K Vol.

US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?

$80.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 15?

78%chance

$412.8 Vol.9 hours left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.4K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

$32.0K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump endorse?

$148.7K Vol.19 days left

Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?

$354.8 Vol.2 months left

Russia nuclear test by...?

$122.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?

$70.4K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?

545%
6+20%

$17.2K Vol.

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

98%chance

$14.4K Vol.19 days left

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

$582.3 Vol.16 days left

Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?

8%chance

$3.1K Vol.Ended

Will Trump visit North Korea by...?

$133.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

28%chance

$205.5K Vol.2 months left

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

8%chance

$30.1K Vol.16 days left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Nevada?

371%
425%

$20.6K Vol.

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

$63.5K Vol.2 months left

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer47%
John Thune26%

$172.8K Vol.

ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?

$408.8K Vol.

Kennedy Center demolition announced by...?

December 3115%
October 314%

$2.1K Vol.

SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?

10%chance

$2.9K Vol.2 months left

CNN flies with Trump by..?

October 3113%
October 152%

$18.4K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

J.D. Vance52%
Marco Rubio25%

$21.7K Vol.

Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?

$10.3K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?

14%chance

$12.5K Vol.16 days left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202728%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?

$12.7K Vol.5 months left

Maduro guilty of all counts?

36%chance

$133.2K Vol.1 year left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 313%
October 15<1%

$13.8K Vol.

What foods will Trump mention in October?

Beef67%
Burger54%

$5.4K Vol.monthly

FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?

54%chance

$2.8K Vol.2 months left

Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by...?

$2.8M Vol.2 months left

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

December 319%
November 304%

$30.3K Vol.

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

$20.0K Vol.2 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

NATO dissolves before 2027?

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

US x Russia military clash by...?

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?

$51.6K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?

470%
518%

$17.3K Vol.

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

$163.7K Vol.2 months left

Epstein client list released by...?

October 315%
December 310%

$4.4M Vol.

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

$272.1K Vol.2 months left

$99.6K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

19%chance

Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?

$50.7K Vol.2 months left

Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?

$113.4K Vol.2 months left

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by...?

$30.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 16?

27%chance

$0.0 Vol.1 day left

Will Trump meet with Marcos by December 31, 2026?

92%chance

$1.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump pardon Richard Nixon by December 31?

$175.6 Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Putin visits US by December 31, 2026?

$2.9K Vol.2 months left

Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?

27%chance

$107.7 Vol.3 months left

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?

36%chance

$4.1K Vol.16 days left

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

8%chance

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$4.7K Vol.16 days left

America.gov removed by October 31?

$5.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit any pandas in 2026?

$853.2 Vol.2 months left

CNN denied entry from White House again by...?

35%chance

$1.4 Vol.16 days left

Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?

21%chance

$427.4 Vol.16 days left

Mamdani visits the White House by...?

December 3129%
October 3113%

$1.6K Vol.

U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

5–15%79%
15–25%9%

$10.1K Vol.

Trump meets with Netanyahu by...?

December 3156%
October 3116%

$6.4K Vol.

Who will be Trump's next Army Secretary?

Adam Telle35%
Sean Parnell16%

$4.5K Vol.

Senate passes Clarity Act by...?

$28.4K Vol.16 days left

Trump renames New Mexico to New America by...?