Geopolitics

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202721%
December 3112%

$4.9M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3014%

$641.4K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$279.0K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$302.5K Vol.18 days left

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

$836.0K Vol.45 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

$201.9K Vol.2 months left

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.3M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$9.0M Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

18%chance

Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

March 31, 202723%
December 319%

$286.1K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3114%
November 3011%

$17.0M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3132%
October 313%

$225.1K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 3110%

$386.1K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$181.9K Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$298.2K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3174%
November 3050%

$573.9K Vol.

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$117.8K Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia16%
Russia11%

$106.2K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

1%chance

$129.8K Vol.15 days left

US imports Russian diesel by...?

November 3032%
October 319%

$241.0K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3129%
November 3028%

$359.8K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3132%
October 319%

$10.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$66.5K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff35%
Jared Kushner35%

$1.5M Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1693%
October 2889%

$156.9K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202738%

$2.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$2.4M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China75%
No meeting by December 3123%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1775%
October 2272%

$302.2K Vol.monthly

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$843.7K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

82%chance

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

March 31, 202764%
December 3134%

$77.3K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland12%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

$613.3K Vol.2 months left

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3137%

$121.3K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

11%chance

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

$123.6K Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$64.6K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

January 31, 202760%
January 15, 202746%

$861.6K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202637%
November 30, 202624%

$739.5K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3118%
October 314%

$37.5K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2837%
Ofer Winter16%

$47.8K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202748%
Netanyahu - Israel PM27%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

22%chance

$511.9K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Yoram Cohen14%

$51.2K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

$504.1K Vol.8 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$849.9K Vol.15 days left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$304.7K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time63%
60+12%

$920.7K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei86%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2927%
30-3424%

$13.0K Vol.weekly

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$2.1M Vol.2 months left

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

October 3160%
November 3056%

$12.6K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$70.1K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$159.6K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$19.6K Vol.1 year left

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202728%

$8.5M Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3114%
October 317%

$99.3K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-591%
10-154%

$24.9K Vol.monthly

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$33.1K Vol.15 days left

US strike on Colombia by...?

27%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+65%
336%

$35.8K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

27%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3177%
November 3076%

$395.9K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$66.3K Vol.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?

$37.4K Vol.2 months left

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka35%
Kramatorsk9%

$1.7M Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-868%
9-1016%

$14.0K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman30%
Mark Carney16%

$55.8K Vol.monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$276.8K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz98%
Ursula von der Leyen96%

$213.3K Vol.monthly

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

9%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 478%
October 1176%

$886.6K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?

2%chance

$21.2K Vol.15 days left

US military action against Cuba by...?

11%chance

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?

30%chance

$95.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3118%
October 312%

$62.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1631%
11-1323%

$9.5K Vol.

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

$426.0K Vol.2 months left

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$117.3K Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

57%chance

$75.6K Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2045%
30-3421%

$2.2K Vol.weekly

Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$561.5K Vol.

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

170-18942%
190-20935%

$8.4K Vol.weekly

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20935%
170-18928%

$1.8K Vol.weekly

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

Wang Huning7%
Li Xi4%

$253.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?

December 3110%
October 311%

$40.4K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3186%
October 3122%

$463.0K Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3120%
October 153%

$133.9K Vol.

Will any country leave NATO by...?

$407.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202757%
March 31, 202733%

$403.5K Vol.

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

December 3183%
October 3125%

$24.8K Vol.

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

264%
314%

$6.6K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by...?

December 3128%
October 3111%

$12.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

531%
426%

$10.7K Vol.

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 317%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3180%
November 3065%

$41.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?

$155.6K Vol.2 months left

Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?

11%chance

$145.3K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE35%
Turkey34%

$34.2K Vol.

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

17%chance

$7.3K Vol.15 days left

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?

$53.8K Vol.2 months left

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

$126.7K Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3130%
October 3111%

$65.1K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3165%
October 2023%

$6.0K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

13%chance

$183.1K Vol.2 months left

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

13%chance

$326.7K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$642.3K Vol.2 months left

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

14%chance

$23.0K Vol.2 months left

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3173%
October 3127%

$1.8K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

6-734%
4-529%

$12.2K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$25.3K Vol.2 months left

China coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202712%
December 31, 20263%

$164.2K Vol.

Will Ukraine re-enter Zakitne by...?

December 3143%
October 3110%

$4.2K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?

November 1556%
October 3123%

$6.4K Vol.monthly

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 314%
October 153%

$22.8K Vol.

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$558.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

No Next Minister by Feb 2840%
Yoav Ben-Tzur20%

$15.1K Vol.

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1584%

$9.7K Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

$16.2K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2680%
September 2978%

$214.2K Vol.monthly

US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?

December 3134%
October 3112%

$53.8K Vol.

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

March 3122%
December 315%

$1.4M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$46.2K Vol.

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

October 3192%
November 3076%

$11.4K Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 153%

$40.2K Vol.

Prime Minister of Australia after next election?

Anthony Albanese42%
Pauline Hanson25%

$33.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by...?

23%chance

$20.8K Vol.2 months left

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 305%
October 312%

$27.6K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2193%
September 2969%

$183.4K Vol.monthly

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Finland11%
Belgium10%

$762.9K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

$381.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia invade another country by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 20267%

$607.3K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

$747.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

$271.9K Vol.2 months left

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

210-22942%
190-20940%

$7.2K Vol.weekly

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3056%
October 3126%

$17.3K Vol.

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

8-944%
10-1132%

$6.4K Vol.

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

16%chance

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by...?

8%chance

$14.5K Vol.2 months left

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Ursula von der Leyen39%
Mark Rutte28%

$564.7K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$8.2K Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$267.9K Vol.2 months left

US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?