Iran

$2.5M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202638%
November 30, 202625%

$733.2K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%
November 3024%

$3.1M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.1M Vol.2 months left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$163.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

$843.7K Vol.16 days left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3133%
November 3031%

$342.3K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3127%
October 319%

$363.8K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 496%
October 1195%

$45.4K Vol.monthly

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$60.7K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3123%
October 317%

$30.2K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3051%
October 3137%

$114.2K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.16 days left

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 319%

$10.2M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$299.5K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.9K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

$505.2K Vol.2 months left

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

28%chance

$32.2K Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$49.8K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3068%
October 3159%

$8.8K Vol.

European military action against Iran by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$332.0K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3162%
Qatar18%

$158.5K Vol.

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 31, 202734%
June 30, 202730%

$8.5M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

19%chance

Iran Nuke before 2027?

$126.7K Vol.2 months left

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3119%
October 313%

$7.4M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

25-2927%
20-2424%

$8.9K Vol.weekly

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

190-20937%
170-18934%

$7.3K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$16.8K Vol.1 year left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$35.4K Vol.monthly

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

466%
515%

$7.6M Vol.

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3126%
October 3114%

$251.7K Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3141%
October 155%

$132.8K Vol.

Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?

December 3171%
October 3117%

$1.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

0-586%
5-109%

$21.6K Vol.monthly

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

4%chance

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$39.0K Vol.monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

$274.5K Vol.2 months left

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+62%
2.7-2.8M18%

$46.8K Vol.monthly

IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$408.0K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3168%
October 2023%

$5.3K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

<2038%
30-3434%

$1.0K Vol.weekly

IEA asks France to release oil stocks by...?

December 3133%
October 3132%

$4.5K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$117.0K Vol.monthly

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

$557.9K Vol.

Israel military action against Yemen by...?

December 3126%
October 3112%

$329.9K Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3130%
October 3113%

$64.6K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

September 2996%
September 2193%

$183.2K Vol.monthly

IEA asks Germany to release oil stocks by...?

October 3133%
December 3131%

$6.9K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3118%
October 316%

$3.5M Vol.

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by...?

12%chance

$22.2K Vol.2 months left

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$8.8K Vol.16 days left

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

October 3168%
October 152%

$11.1K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2251%
September 2422%

$122.3K Vol.monthly

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

190-20942%
170-18917%

$310.6 Vol.weekly

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

14%chance

$26.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 314%
October 153%

$22.2K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

$605.4K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202722%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Will Iran target Oman by...?

November 3019%
October 313%

$45.3K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2954%
20-2419%

$44.1K Vol.monthly

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3029%
October 317%

$97.9K Vol.

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3063%
October 3124%

$17.5K Vol.

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?

14%chance

$6.6K Vol.16 days left

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

19%chance

$56.1K Vol.2 months left

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 318%
October 313%

$4.2K Vol.

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$7.0K Vol.

Israel military action against Beirut by...?

$20.7K Vol.16 days left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M59%
270M6%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

$281.5K Vol.2 months left

$6.9K Vol.16 days left

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%chance

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

16%chance

$6.3K Vol.16 days left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

$641.5K Vol.2 months left

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

16%chance

$586.9 Vol.16 days left

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

$35.6K Vol.16 days left

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$161.0K Vol.2 months left

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

33%chance

$19.1K Vol.2 months left

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

US28%
Australia18%

$51.2K Vol.monthly

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

$235.0K Vol.2 months left

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

<1%chance

$2.2K Vol.16 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Kuwait by...?

October 3125%
October 1516%

$24.1K Vol.

Panama Canal effectively closed by...?

December 316%
November 304%

$380.3 Vol.

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 313%
October 15<1%

$13.8K Vol.

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3048%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?

$153.2 Vol.2 months left

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

10+23%
20+18%

$4.3K Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

12%chance

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?

$4.7K Vol.16 days left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

$1.3K Vol.16 days left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by...?

December 3116%
October 315%

$5.0K Vol.

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?

13%chance

$3.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

31%chance

$2.5K Vol.16 days left

Will Iran target Qatar by...?

$974.4 Vol.16 days left

Will Iran target Syria by...?

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Will Iran target Egypt by...?

$119.9K Vol.2 months left

$1.3K Vol.16 days left

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

4%chance

Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

1%chance

$1.3K Vol.16 days left

Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

1%chance

$1.0K Vol.16 days left

Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

<1%chance

$1.2K Vol.16 days left

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

$643.6 Vol.16 days left

Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?

December 315%
October 311%

$118.0K Vol.

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

$30.1K Vol.16 days left

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

12%chance

$13.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?

$2.7K Vol.2 months left

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

21%chance

$33.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

$79.6K Vol.2 months left

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

$53.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

$124.0K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$195.4K Vol.2 months left

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?

$113.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran hold a presidential election by...?