Middle East

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1598%
- October 3181%
$12.4M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.9M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

$294.3K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1180%
October 476%

$882.6K Vol.monthly

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3130%
October 317%

$175.9K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$330.0K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3119%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$39.0K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$60.5K Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3192%
October 1587%

$22.1K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$115.5K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3186%
October 1585%

$17.4K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$86.8K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+50%
2.7-2.8M23%

$46.0K Vol.monthly

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 311%

$1.1M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

10%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2836%
Tally Gotliv16%

$49.0K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.5K Vol.monthly

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3168%
October 2038%

$4.6K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 896%

$65.5K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2325%
26-2723%

$19.1K Vol.

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 318%
October 313%

$4.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<476%
4-624%

$10.9K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.4K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.8K Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1492%
October 1591%

$140.3K Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 156%

$39.7K Vol.

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

$273.6K Vol.2 months left

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

91%chance

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2%chance

$8.5K Vol.17 days left

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

5%chance

$121.8K Vol.2 months left

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela18%
Kuwait8%

$905.2K Vol.

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

8%chance

$198.1K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Yoram Cohen13%

$42.7K Vol.

USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?

November 3098%
November 1585%

$8.8K Vol.

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

10%chance

$605.2K Vol.2 months left

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

63%chance

$2.1K Vol.2 months left

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

November 3083%
October 3181%

$9.6K Vol.

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?

November 3026%
October 3115%

$97.8K Vol.

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

5%chance

$102.5K Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

35%chance

$2.4K Vol.17 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Interior?

$14.2K Vol.

USS George Washington departs CENTCOM by...?

December 3176%
November 3067%

$39.7K Vol.

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 3111%
October 31<1%

$5.8K Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland14%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Which countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?

Egypt10%
Yemen10%

$79.8K Vol.

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3127%
October 3113%

$64.2K Vol.

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

9%chance

$235.0K Vol.2 months left

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

September 2983%
September 2678%

$213.2K Vol.monthly

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

466%
513%

$7.6M Vol.

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3%chance

$862.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

11%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?

10+33%
8-933%

$8.0K Vol.

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

8%chance

$566.9 Vol.17 days left

Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?

November 3052%
October 3124%

$17.5K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 317%
October 31<1%

$18.0M Vol.

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

October 3141%
October 1512%

$131.7K Vol.

Houthi military action against Mecca by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$7.0K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

5%chance

$448.4K Vol.2 months left

Syrian troops enter Yemen by...?

December 319%
October 314%

$4.7K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

3%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu # of seats?

8-951%
6-722%

$5.7K Vol.

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

14%chance

$65.9K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-867%
<718%

$10.5K Vol.

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

19%chance

$18.0K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?

532%
625%

$9.2K Vol.

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

4%chance

$535.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

14%chance

$6.2K Vol.17 days left

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

6%chance

$688.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target Syria by...?

3%chance

$2.1K Vol.17 days left

Israel Election: Shas # of seats?

8-937%
6-730%

$7.0K Vol.

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

13%chance

$325.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

4%chance

$248.9K Vol.2 months left

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

4%chance

$92.3K Vol.2 months left

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

7%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?

5%chance

$26.6K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Israel by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$250.6K Vol.

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1637%
11-1328%

$6.8K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.4K Vol.1 year left

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

November 306%
October 312%

$27.1K Vol.

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

September 2526%
September 2418%

$122.1K Vol.monthly

Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?

8-937%
6-733%

$3.9K Vol.

Israel military action against Syria by...?

November 3038%
October 3118%

$84.4K Vol.

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?

254%
123%

$5.4K Vol.

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

14%chance

$182.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran releases Trump Hormuz voicemail by...?

October 313%
October 15<1%

$13.8K Vol.

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$71.0K Vol.2 months left

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$641.4K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Dems # of seats?

10-1139%
12-1335%

$6.4K Vol.

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

31%chance

$2.5K Vol.17 days left

France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?

December 314%
October 312%

$12.4K Vol.

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

2%chance

$65.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

$677.7K Vol.

Turkish troops enter Yemen by...?

December 3110%
October 314%

$5.0K Vol.

Houthis target Syria by...?

December 315%
October 314%

$4.1K Vol.

Abdul-Malik al-Houthi out by...?

December 3116%
November 3013%

$32.0 Vol.

Saudi troops enter Taiz by...?

December 3114%
October 313%

$14.8K Vol.

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

December 3116%
October 312%

$14.0K Vol.

Saudi troops enter Sanaa by...?

December 317%
October 313%

$9.2K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

3%chance

$1.3K Vol.17 days left

NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?

4%chance

$18.7K Vol.2 months left

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?

7%chance

$35.5K Vol.17 days left

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%46%
16-18%32%

$5.0K Vol.

Israel Election: RZP-Zehut # of seats?

6-737%
4-534%

$11.2K Vol.

Middle East

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Greta Thunberg arrested by...?

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Israel military action against Iraq by...?

Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Oct 31?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by...?

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Will Iran target Syria by...?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Will Iran target Bahrain by...?

Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?

Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?