All markets
Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?
87%chance
- Yes87.4%
Outcomes
- Yes87%
87.4¢ per share
- No13%
12.7¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 87.4¢Spread 18.1¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 78.3¢ | 71.33 | $55.85 |
| 78.2¢ | 11.1 | $8.68 |
| 67.3¢ | 118.44 | $79.71 |
| 67.2¢ | 13.19 | $8.86 |
| 67¢ | 140 | $93.80 |
| 16¢ | 10 | $1.60 |
| 15¢ | 250 | $37.50 |
| 14¢ | 55 | $7.70 |
| 11¢ | 426.14 | $46.88 |
| 7.3¢ | 7.71 | $0.56 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 96.4¢ | 27.78 | $26.78 |
| 96.5¢ | 5 | $4.83 |
| 96.7¢ | 5 | $4.84 |
| 97.4¢ | 5 | $4.87 |
| 97.8¢ | 20.3 | $19.85 |
| 97.9¢ | 85 | $83.22 |
| 98¢ | 300 | $294.00 |
| 98.3¢ | 5 | $4.92 |
| 98.7¢ | 10.46 | $10.32 |
| 98.8¢ | 30 | $29.64 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.