All markets
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?
5%chance
- Yes4.5%
Outcomes
- Yes5%
4.6¢ per share
- No95%
95.4¢ per share
Order book
Trade YesMidpoint 4.6¢Spread 2.4¢
Bids
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4¢ | 40 | $1.36 |
| 3.3¢ | 20 | $0.66 |
| 3.2¢ | 35.17 | $1.13 |
| 3¢ | 34 | $1.02 |
| 2.7¢ | 20 | $0.54 |
| 2.4¢ | 7.63 | $0.18 |
| 2.3¢ | 33 | $0.76 |
| 2.2¢ | 40 | $0.88 |
| 2.1¢ | 20 | $0.42 |
| 2¢ | 255.28 | $5.11 |
Asks
| Price | Shares | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8¢ | 5.92 | $0.34 |
| 5.9¢ | 5.7 | $0.34 |
| 6¢ | 33.3 | $2.00 |
| 6.5¢ | 52.2 | $3.39 |
| 6.6¢ | 47.94 | $3.16 |
| 6.9¢ | 33 | $2.28 |
| 7¢ | 120 | $8.40 |
| 7.7¢ | 53.4 | $4.11 |
| 9.3¢ | 20.01 | $1.86 |
| 21.2¢ | 10.15 | $2.15 |
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.