Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$34.9M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3182%

$12.1M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1894%

$1.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.7M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.1K Vol.monthly

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$218.3K Vol.21 days left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3130%
October 318%

$58.6K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202766%

$8.6M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$318.1K Vol.Ended

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Pipeline96%
Healthcare96%

$34.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$195.8K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$662.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3138%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.4M Vol.

$1.8M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4740%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

20%chance

$71.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202643%
November 30, 202633%

$702.0K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$36.1K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.4+90%

$9.0K Vol.weekly

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff43%
Jared Kushner42%

$1.3M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

120-13928%
140-15928%

$39.9K Vol.daily

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202746%
Pete Hegseth8%

$104.5K Vol.annual

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3133%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3124%
October 314%

$1.8M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+20%
100-11917%

$22.3K Vol.daily

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
160-17919%

$4.4K Vol.daily

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%86%
↓ 35%57%

$4.3K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Barack Obama97%

$111.0K Vol.monthly

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

17%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen92%

$209.6K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

71%chance

$111.0K Vol.2 years left

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Benjamin Netanyahu72%

$70.1K Vol.monthly

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202748%

$1.1M Vol.

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement80%
Likud17%

$62.4K Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan19%
Germany15%

$680.5K Vol.annual

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+28%
38.2–38.322%

$2.4K Vol.weekly

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 13>99%
October 2297%

$38.0K Vol.monthly

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Nobel81%
Waitress75%

$3.2K Vol.weekly

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Mahmoud Khalil21%
John Brennan20%

$495.6K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202732%
December 31, 20265%

$33.2K Vol.

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.5K Vol.2 months left

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3129%
October 315%

$1.8K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M67%
270M7%

$32.6K Vol.monthly

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3154%
Qatar19%

$155.4K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie36%
Stefan Brodie17%

$509.8K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
North Carolina>99%

$23.7K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3075%

$391.2K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%21%
4.75%14%

$19.7K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$409.8K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT30%
CATL26%

$475.6K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

082%
113%

$1.1K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%chance

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3157%

$7.3K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro18%
Romeu Zema<1%

$53.4K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

November 3084%
October 3169%

$7.7K Vol.annual

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4-691%
7-94%

$104.7K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

638%
7+30%

$31.4K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman48%
Dario Amodei38%

$52.0K Vol.monthly

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$23.9K Vol.2 months left

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?

December 31, 202743%
December 31, 202636%

$16.6K Vol.

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

8%chance

$28.8K Vol.2 months left

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines43%
Anduril21%

$214.9K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

$746.8K Vol.2 months left

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

3%chance

$87.1K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?

1070%
11+20%

$13.3K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$507.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.4K Vol.8 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in South Carolina?

166%
231%

$12.3K Vol.

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

4%chance

$182.3K Vol.2 months left

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.5K Vol.2 months left

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%chance

$125.1K Vol.2 months left

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.2K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Iowa?

349%
228%

$24.3K Vol.

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

1%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

6%chance

$799.0K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

16%chance

$271.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?

>99%chance

$1.2K Vol.Ended

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Trump out as President before 2027?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

JD Vance out as VP by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

NATO dissolves before 2027?

Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 11?