Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$34.8M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3181%

$11.9M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1888%

$1.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3144%

$39.6M Vol.

$7.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.1M Vol.monthly

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

October 31>99%
December 31>99%

$125.6K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 318%

$8.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202766%

$8.6M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

22%chance

$194.4K Vol.18 days left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

120-139>99%
100-119<1%

$89.9K Vol.daily

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$659.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3114%
October 3112%

$29.7K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Pipeline97%
Healthcare96%

$20.9K Vol.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

32%chance

$546.6K Vol.9 months left

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3025%

$1.8M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4740%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

19%chance

$71.3K Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$173.3K Vol.21 days left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3124%
October 314%

$12.8K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202643%
November 30, 202632%

$699.1K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M68%
270M10%

$31.5K Vol.monthly

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman76%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202744%
Mike Waltz9%

$104.1K Vol.annual

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China79%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$346.0K Vol.monthly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15927%
160-17917%

$38.1K Vol.daily

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+92%
37.0+85%

$5.6K Vol.weekly

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3134%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

180-19918%
200+17%

$21.0K Vol.daily

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Barack Obama97%

$110.7K Vol.monthly

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff43%
Jared Kushner42%

$1.3M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
160-17919%

$4.3K Vol.daily

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%93%
↓ 36%66%

$4.1K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%21%
4.75%14%

$19.7K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mohammed bin Salman>99%
Friedrich Merz93%

$209.1K Vol.monthly

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3155%
Qatar19%

$155.3K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3125%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.7K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

71%chance

$111.0K Vol.2 years left

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez72%

$69.3K Vol.monthly

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202767%
June 30, 202748%

$1.1M Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement80%
Likud21%

$62.1K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$495.6K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1397%
October 2297%

$37.3K Vol.monthly

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Nobel81%
Waitress77%

$3.0K Vol.weekly

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+23%
38.2–38.320%

$2.2K Vol.weekly

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202731%
December 31, 20265%

$33.1K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
Arizona99%

$23.6K Vol.

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.5K Vol.2 months left

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2%chance

$378.3K Vol.6 days left

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$507.5K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan19%
Germany15%

$678.5K Vol.annual

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie35%
Stefan Brodie17%

$509.8K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3075%

$390.9K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$409.8K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT28%
CATL26%

$475.6K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

082%
113%

$1.1K Vol.

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4-691%
7-98%

$104.6K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro18%
Romeu Zema<1%

$53.4K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%chance

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3161%

$7.3K Vol.

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

JD Vance out as VP by...?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?