Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change69%
- 25 bps increase31%
$39.6M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1794%

$12.9M Vol.monthly

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3165%
December 3138%

$40.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase79%
No change20%

$3.5M Vol.monthly

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi41%
Steve Witkoff40%

$1.5M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3125%
October 316%

$189.1K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$435.2K Vol.Ended

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$9.0M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change55%
25 bps increase41%

$488.8K Vol.monthly

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3132%
November 3024%

$1.9M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3025%

$3.1M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Transgender 5+ times>99%
AI / Artificial Intelligence>99%

$33.1K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT30%
CATL23%

$506.3K Vol.

$132.3K Vol.monthly

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

11%chance

$216.7K Vol.17 days left

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3124%
October 315%

$52.0K Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%60%
≥ 4.5%24%

$7.1M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Coal / Diesel90%
Job 13+ times78%

$13.9K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19931%
200+26%

$51.0K Vol.daily

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3112%
October 312%

$10.6K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3126%
October 317%

$6.7M Vol.

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.2+99%

$17.5K Vol.weekly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+32%
180-19926%

$29.1K Vol.daily

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+26%
120-13919%

$10.8K Vol.daily

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202639%
November 30, 202628%

$707.5K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

17%chance

$76.7K Vol.2 months left

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan21%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$500.6K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202749%
Pete Hegseth9%

$109.1K Vol.annual

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Swim / Swimming>99%
Handsome>99%

$7.7K Vol.weekly

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%87%
↓ 36%75%

$7.6K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

10%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

SBF released from custody in 2026?

2%chance

$468.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$664.9K Vol.2 months left

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement67%
Likud34%

$65.2K Vol.

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

US strike on Colombia by...?

25%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez81%

$72.2K Vol.monthly

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

1%chance

$228.3K Vol.20 days left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.5%19%
4.25%16%

$21.5K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 16>99%
October 1799%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3077%

$393.0K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3119%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune46%
Chuck Schumer38%

$11.3K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

7%chance

$31.9K Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz95%
Ursula von der Leyen88%

$211.1K Vol.monthly

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

7%chance

$258.6K Vol.2 months left

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

36%chance

$29.4K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+15%
37.8–37.915%

$3.8K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$16.7K Vol.8 months left

Who will be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Gus Bilirakis32%
Dean Spanos32%

$1.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman35%
Mohammed bin Salman16%

$53.5K Vol.monthly

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

39%chance

$1.3K Vol.3 days left

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

North Carolina>99%
Georgia>99%

$25.1K Vol.

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro19%
Romeu Zema1%

$54.6K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3011%
December 314%

$3.0K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$503.8K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

834%
731%

$11.0K Vol.

Weed rescheduled by...?

13%chance

$208.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

5%chance

$287.1K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie45%
Stefan Brodie17%

$511.0K Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

98%chance

$847.6 Vol.2 months left

How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

10-1278%
13-156%

$63.2K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

2%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$24.6K Vol.2 months left

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.9K Vol.

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$410.5K Vol.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

10%chance

$747.4K Vol.2 months left

Trump goes to space in 2026?

2%chance

$56.8K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

5%chance

$167.4K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

23%chance

$15.9K Vol.1 year left

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
195-19918%

$325.5K Vol.

What will Trump say in October?

Caddie96%
Weave61%

$10.6K Vol.monthly

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

24%chance

$2.4K Vol.2 months left

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?

<1%chance

$63.5K Vol.Ended

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?

36%chance

$4.1K Vol.17 days left

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3184%
October 3156%

$7.7K Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

3%chance

$765.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

6%chance

$799.3K Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3157%
Qatar19%

$155.7K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines39%
Anduril17%

$215.1K Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$507.7K Vol.

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

December 319%
November 304%

$30.3K Vol.

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.7K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

082%
117%

$1.3K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time56%
60+24%

$915.2K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2%chance

$378.8K Vol.5 days left

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202759%

$1.1M Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?

1123%
1223%

$18.0K Vol.

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

3%chance

$27.0K Vol.2 months left

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

36%67%
35%27%

$164.1K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202727%
December 31, 20265%

$33.4K Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

4%chance

$765.8K Vol.2 months left

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31, 202719%
December 31, 202611%

$2.1M Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Minnesota?

470%
518%

$17.3K Vol.

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

18%chance

$174.1K Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M57%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

US x China Military clash before 2027?

2%chance

$218.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

74%chance

$111.2K Vol.2 years left

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

97%chance

$14.9K Vol.20 days left

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Kristi Noem28%
Dan Scavino27%

$1.4M Vol.monthly

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

6%chance

$552.3 Vol.17 days left

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

12%chance

$177.2K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

19%chance

$272.0K Vol.2 months left

Trump

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

US strike on Colombia by...?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Weed rescheduled by...?

Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Trump goes to space in 2026?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

JD Vance out as VP by...?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Insurrection Act invoked by...?

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by October 31?

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?