World

76 events

Next French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen43%
- Édouard Philippe20%
$150.2M Vol.

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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$73.9M Vol.2 months left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$29.2M Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

$800.3K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election

$180.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot46%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.8M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 318%

$8.9M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson81%
Ulf Kristersson16%

$10.0M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 202746%
June 30, 202734%

$2.9M Vol.

$1.2M Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Donald Trump9%
Yulia Navalnaya8%

$14.2K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Marine Le Pen89%
David Lisnard4%

$12.3K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman76%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Édouard Philippe38%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon29%

$7.9K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China79%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter17%

$35.3K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$54.8K Vol.

French Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Jean-Luc Mélenchon39%
Édouard Philippe22%

$5.3K Vol.

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Ruas 5-10%17%
Ruas 10-15%13%

$23.6K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%62%
Remain 20–40%19%

$17.9K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

57%chance

$50.4K Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

1%chance

$23.4K Vol.18 days left

El Salvador Legislative Election: 2nd Place

PCN46%
ARENA26%

$10.0K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$43.7K Vol.

Romanian PM Bolojan out by...?

December 3181%
October 3168%

$877.9K Vol.

Spain General Election Winner

PP86%
PSOE14%

$101.1K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

8%chance

$2.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202731%
December 31, 20265%

$33.1K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$174.0K Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$222.8K Vol.2 months left

Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?

AfD68%
Grüne27%

$58.3K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

81%chance

$823.6K Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$251.6K Vol.

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2%chance

$378.3K Vol.6 days left

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

5%chance

$555.7K Vol.2 months left

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

5%chance

$273.4K Vol.2 months left

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

<1%chance

$44.9K Vol.2 days left

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$532.9K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2832%
Tally Gotliv14%

$45.8K Vol.

Israel Election: UTJ # of seats?

7-868%
9-1017%

$10.4K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

5%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Kevin Acton77%
Harwinder Sandhu18%

$5.1K Vol.

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

12%chance

$225.4K Vol.2 months left

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

December 31, 202616%
October 31, 202611%

$362.6K Vol.

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

The Democrats56%
Yashar56%

$51.4K Vol.

Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share?

5-6%36%
6-7%34%

$6.0K Vol.

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

90%chance

$2.9K Vol.12 days left

Surrey City Centre British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Amna Shah47%
Zeeshan Wahla41%

$2.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

17%chance

$6.1K Vol.14 days left

El Salvador Legislative Election: 3rd Place

PCN29%
PAIS28%

$6.3K Vol.

Amazonas Governor Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Aziz 6-10%33%
Aziz 10-15%28%

$5.7K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<459%
4-639%

$9.1K Vol.

North Island British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Anna Kindy64%
Sara Lopez33%

$1.2K Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change67%
25 bps increase26%

$9.6K Vol.annual

Richmond-Steveston British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Gordon Zhang79%
Bruce Kong17%

$3.3K Vol.

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

$6.1K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany16%
Japan14%

$678.5K Vol.annual

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

11%chance

$92.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Yashar vote share?

18-20%45%
<16%32%

$5.0K Vol.

Vancouver-Langara British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner

Jaime Stein57%
Sunita Dhir35%

$1.4K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

3%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Ukraine election called by...?

6%chance

$97.5K Vol.2 months left

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

7%chance

$7.5K Vol.2 months left

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?

10%chance

$191.7K Vol.2 months left

Israel Election: Together # of seats?

14-1634%
11-1328%

$6.8K Vol.

World

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by...?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever?

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Ukraine election called by...?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Bulgaria election?

Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?