Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change69%
- 25 bps increase32%
$38.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase80%
No change18%

$3.4M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change55%
25 bps increase43%

$479.9K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA72%
Apple26%

$8.3M Vol.monthly

$54.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA78%
Apple20%

$329.2K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike61%
Hike–Hike–Hike19%

$324.7K Vol.daily

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

<1%chance

$2.7K Vol.9 hours left

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$213.4K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase27%

$121.2K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%55%
5.5%30%

$983.8K Vol.weekly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause35%
Pause-Hike-Hike14%

$42.4K Vol.daily

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%66%
5.80%43%

$220.6K Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease87%
No Change10%

$59.3K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet86%
Microsoft12%

$65.6K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

77%chance

$39.6K Vol.12 days left

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change77%
25 bps increase21%

$178.6K Vol.annual

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$311.5K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K36%
$397K - $407K28%

$20.5K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%89%
5.25%46%

$105.4K Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet57%
Microsoft28%

$73.8K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple63%
NVIDIA15%

$32.5K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%35%
3.0-3.5%34%

$51.7K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+53%
2.7-2.8M24%

$46.5K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.3% to 0.5%29%
0.0% to 0.2%25%

$36.6K Vol.annual

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%20%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%16%
Below 4.45%7%

$87.2K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%49%
5.50-5.99%21%

$162.9K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%62%
5.35%47%

$27.8K Vol.weekly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change78%
25 bps increase22%

$37.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.6K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%45%
Below 5.15%41%

$15.2K Vol.weekly

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+36%
5.5%17%

$30.4K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.00%67%
4.90%61%

$17.8K Vol.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%81%
↑ 4.5%25%

$1.9M Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%52%
1.2-1.5%37%

$70.1K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%65%
Below 4.70%44%

$7.6K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%50%
1.1 – 1.5%27%

$113.6K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%30%
Below 5.15%26%

$70.5K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change83%
25 bps decrease11%

$55.3K Vol.annual

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%47%
0.2 to 0.3%27%

$29.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%60%
5.08%59%

$16.7K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$12.5K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change65%
25 bps decrease30%

$11.9K Vol.annual

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%43%
0.2%33%

$13.3K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M65%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K32%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%60%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.4K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%67%
Below 4.60%62%

$13.8K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%40%
0.6–0.7%20%

$35.9K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.89%77%
4.86%74%

$11.7K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$79.0K Vol.annual

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%15%

$68.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%60%
Below 4.92%55%

$11.4K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K31%
$445K - $458K26%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change68%
25 bps increase25%

$36.9K Vol.annual

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T54%
$1.00-$1.10T29%

$11.9K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%32%

$7.4K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%40%
3.5-3.9%36%

$63.0K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+94%
0.75% to 1.49%2%

$102.7K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%9%

$76.2K Vol.

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%30%
3.0%28%

$15.0K Vol.monthly

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%84%
2.0-2.4%15%

$58.0K Vol.

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K46%
$503K - $507K16%

$18.4K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
75k to 100k17%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines50%
Anduril17%

$215.1K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%41%
5.73%24%

$19.8K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.7K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
51.0 to 51.920%

$11.8K Vol.monthly

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600056%
6800045%

$387.1 Vol.

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change54%
25 bps increase45%

$41.4K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M28%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.3K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.6K Vol.monthly

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

4%chance

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change18%

$33.3K Vol.annual

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3083%
October 3167%

$6.0K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$60.9K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change43%

$93.8K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K25%
$788K - $809K22%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.8%–1.6%25%
0.0%–0.8%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%60%
Below 5.52%60%

$13.8K Vol.

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps increase4%

$10.4K Vol.monthly

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M26%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%58%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.7K Vol.

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change97%
25 bps hike3%

$38.6K Vol.annual

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%64%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.4K Vol.monthly

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.924%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+38%

$55.5K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase25%

$9.9K Vol.annual

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

73%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%50%
0-1.0%46%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

$1.146M - $1.165M22%
$1.083M - $1.104M21%

$12.6K Vol.monthly

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.7K Vol.monthly

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.6K Vol.annual

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.9K Vol.monthly

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.1K Vol.2 months left

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.944%
43.0 to 45.942%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.3K Vol.

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.4K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

41%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%32%

$62.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

68%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple64%
NVIDIA16%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0047%
1600.00–1699.9933%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%91%
0-1%7%

$111.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$323K - $327K20%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

October Inflation US - Annual

3.9%28%
3.8%27%

$40.0 Vol.monthly

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

25%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change50%
25 bps hike43%

$32.6K Vol.annual

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change71%
25 bps decrease22%

$25.6 Vol.annual

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9935%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

46%chance

$4.1K Vol.17 days left

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

9%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase57%
No change37%

$38.9K Vol.annual

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3117%
October 3114%

$15.2K Vol.

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

3%chance

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$473K - $478K40%
$468K - $473K39%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3112%
November 306%

$23.5K Vol.

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.3K Vol.

USMCA extended in 2026?

10%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202754%
June 30, 202749%

$636.2 Vol.

Japan recession in 2026?

5%chance

$4.3K Vol.6 months left

Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

US recession by end of 2027?

US announces another yen intervention by...?

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?