Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change73%
- 25 bps increase28%
$41.6M Vol.monthly

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Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA64%
Apple32%

$8.5M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase80%
No change19%

$3.5M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)<1%

$54.2M Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

86%chance

$795.9K Vol.55 days left

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA78%
Apple22%

$364.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%48%
Below 5.15%43%

$102.9K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%27%
5.5%21%

$1.0M Vol.weekly

Fed Decision in January?

No change57%
25 bps increase36%

$505.2K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike62%
Hike–Hike–Hike16%

$345.3K Vol.daily

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change92%
25 bps increase10%

$598.9K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple72%
NVIDIA22%

$46.6K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%35%
Below 4.45%23%

$102.8K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%35%
Below 4.6%12%

$368.4K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple49%
NVIDIA38%

$43.3K Vol.monthly

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%61%
5.25%21%

$116.3K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%48%
5.80%25%

$229.3K Vol.

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting51%
June 2027 Meeting36%

$3.8M Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause41%
Pause-Hike-Hike22%

$47.7K Vol.daily

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet79%
Microsoft20%

$67.6K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change96%
25 bps increase4%

$220.3K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change79%
25 bps increase20%

$181.9K Vol.annual

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase93%
No change8%

$314.7K Vol.annual

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%57%
3.8%25%

$6.9K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

74%chance

$40.1K Vol.11 days left

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.6%42%
5.5%26%

$35.0K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%34%
3.0-3.5%33%

$54.0K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%21%
5.35%17%

$30.2K Vol.weekly

October Inflation US - Monthly

0.3%35%
0.4%23%

$4.0K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.15%79%
Below 5.18%74%

$17.4K Vol.weekly

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet66%
Microsoft23%

$75.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change92%
Decrease8%

$81.9K Vol.annual

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%17%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease87%
No Change10%

$60.0K Vol.annual

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%49%
0.2 to 0.3%25%

$30.9K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - October 2026

2.6%65%
2.5%23%

$2.5K Vol.monthly

Meta headcount above __ in Q3?

6600086%
6800070%

$2.3K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change83%
25 bps decrease10%

$56.2K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.49%83%
Below 5.52%74%

$16.0K Vol.

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.3%58%
0.2%28%

$14.2K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%61%
5.00%51%

$18.6K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%81%
Below 4.60%65%

$14.8K Vol.

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%40%
0.6–0.7%29%

$37.2K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

$397K - $407K38%
<$397K36%

$20.9K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%77%
2.5–3.0%16%

$56.2K Vol.monthly

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%80%
↑ 4.5%17%

$1.9M Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.08%43%
5.14%34%

$17.2K Vol.

Core CPI MoM - October 2026

0.2%36%
0.3%34%

$1.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%85%
Below 4.70%69%

$7.7K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%52%
1.1 – 1.5%27%

$114.1K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$35.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change59%
25 bps decrease30%

$12.3K Vol.annual

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%62%
3.0–3.4%22%

$139.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%92%
Below 4.92%67%

$11.9K Vol.

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%34%

$63.7K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%30%

$7.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%68%
4.89%40%

$12.1K Vol.

Central Bank of Colombia decision in October

No change67%
25 bps increase25%

$37.0K Vol.annual

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1%31%
2.9%27%

$15.6K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$39.0K Vol.monthly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$12.6K Vol.

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$900B-$1.00T52%
$1.00-$1.10T33%

$12.2K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change79%
25 bps increase21%

$37.2K Vol.

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+62%
2.7-2.8M18%

$46.8K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%93%
2.0-2.4%7%

$58.3K Vol.

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+28%
<6.8M23%

$14.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M23%
$1.125M - $1.146M20%

$13.2K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
55.0 to 55.922%

$12.4K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+96%
0.75% to 1.49%1%

$102.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K32%
$445K - $458K26%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in October?

$2.20 to $2.3033%
$2.10 to $2.2028%

$614.2 Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%26%
-0.3% to -0.1%23%

$37.0K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase70%
No Change13%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%15%

$68.1K Vol.monthly

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
0 to 25k17%

$21.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K26%
$788K - $809K22%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$117.0K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.7K Vol.

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$61.1K Vol.annual

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%52%
1.2-1.5%27%

$70.5K Vol.annual

$19.8K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%9%

$76.2K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%53%
3.0%+43%

$55.8K Vol.

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.8K Vol.

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%48%
0-1.0%47%

$58.1K Vol.monthly

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

JPMorgan Chase5%
Santander4%

$82.8K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K29%
$403K - $407K28%

$18.5K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%56%
3.00% to 3.49%13%

$84.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M27%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.4K Vol.monthly

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%49%
5.50-5.99%28%

$162.9K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change43%

$94.0K Vol.annual

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0053%
1600.00–1699.9933%

$22.7K Vol.monthly

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines36%
Anduril17%

$215.2K Vol.

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.0%–0.8%25%
0.8%–1.6%23%

$43.4K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.7K Vol.annual

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K50%
$503K - $507K18%

$18.4K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3075%
October 3167%

$6.0K Vol.

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%90%
0-1%7%

$111.8K Vol.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

46.0 to 48.944%
43.0 to 45.942%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?

No Change89%
Decrease11%

$8.7K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change93%
25 bps increase5%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.925%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

4%chance

$245.1K Vol.2 months left

2026 World GDP Growth

3.0%30%
3.1%29%

$76.4K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

41%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike3%

$38.6K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change53%
25 bps increase46%

$41.4K Vol.annual

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q3 2026?

2.5–2.9%35%
3.0–3.4%33%

$62.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

70%chance

$27.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.9K Vol.2 months left

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

54%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$15.0K Vol.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase60%
No change37%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M59%
270M5%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

12%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$11.0K Vol.1 year left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$40.0K Vol.monthly

JPMorgan (JPM) closes at $1T+ market cap by…?

December 3115%
October 3113%

$15.3K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%66%
25-29.9%30%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

No Change74%
50+ bps decrease23%

$25.6 Vol.annual

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change48%
25 bps hike42%

$32.6K Vol.annual

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

72%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

4%chance

$10.9K Vol.2 months left

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

3.1%+92%
2.2–2.4%3%

$119.2K Vol.

Which CEOs will be out before 2027?

$718.0K Vol.

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

46%chance

$4.1K Vol.16 days left

UK Recession in 2026?

6%chance

$15.6K Vol.6 months left

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

50+ bps decrease47%
No change47%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3048%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K40%
$387K - $391K32%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Denver Metro area be on December 31?

$468K - $473K42%
<$458K41%

$0.0 Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$327K+23%
$313K - $318K20%

$14.8K Vol.monthly

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

12%chance

$2.1K Vol.16 days left

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

27%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3113%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change18%

$33.3K Vol.annual

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?

5%chance

$823.5 Vol.2 months left

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.3K Vol.

USMCA extended in 2026?

9%chance

$11.5K Vol.2 months left

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

8%chance

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by July 31?

50%chance

$28.9 Vol.2 months left

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?

8%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?

December 31, 202756%
June 30, 202744%

$636.2 Vol.

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

Japan recession in 2026?

5%chance

$4.3K Vol.6 months left

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

$7.000+64%
$9.000+30%

$23.0K Vol.

SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?

17%chance

$52.6K Vol.2 months left

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

13%chance

$30.9K Vol.2 months left

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B43%
700–800B21%

$25.0K Vol.

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

7%chance

$92.1K Vol.2 months left

Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?

3%chance

$94.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%73%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?

9%chance

$9.7K Vol.4 months left

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026?

1600.00+46%
1550.00–1599.9935%

$12.0K Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%
5.0–6.0%4%

$931.3K Vol.

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3%chance

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

23%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m55%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

$36.1K Vol.2 months left

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

7%chance

$4.3K Vol.2 months left

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

10%chance

$13.8K Vol.2 months left

US defaults on debt by 2027?

2%chance

$18.5K Vol.2 months left

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

$41 trillion55%
$42 trillion4%

$19.3K Vol.

Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

US recession by end of 2026?

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

US recession by end of 2027?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

UK Recession in 2026?

US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?