Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$35.1M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA81%
Apple15%

$8.2M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$423.5K Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.7%43%
3.6%42%

$245.5K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA94%
Apple5%

$290.4K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.1K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%51%
0.5%28%

$85.3K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$657.7K Vol.56 days left

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%35%
Below 5.15%26%

$69.0K Vol.

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%53%
0.3%30%

$67.6K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause19%

$294.1K Vol.daily

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet84%
Microsoft16%

$57.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease90%
No Change5%

$57.0K Vol.annual

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple90%
NVIDIA8%

$28.7K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change82%
25 bps increase18%

$114.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$201.6K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+50%
2.7-2.8M22%

$45.9K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$78.5K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K34%
$407K - $417K19%

$18.8K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$972.1K Vol.weekly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%39%
3.5-3.9%30%

$62.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%33%
-0.3% to -0.1%26%

$36.1K Vol.annual

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change61%
25 bps decrease36%

$10.9K Vol.annual

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%47%
5.50-5.99%23%

$162.6K Vol.

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

53%chance

$18.0K Vol.2 months left

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$172.8K Vol.annual

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3049%
$2.10 to $2.2032%

$34.9K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike12%

$33.4K Vol.daily

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M65%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K31%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%46%
2.5%35%

$49.5K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

87%chance

$33.5K Vol.13 days left

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left