Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$33.8M Vol.monthly

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US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3182%

$1.4M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3181%

$11.7M Vol.monthly

$39.5M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 319%

$8.9M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%50%
4.0%22%

$7.0M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$346.0K Vol.monthly

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

23%chance

$178.2K Vol.18 days left

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

33%chance

$546.3K Vol.9 months left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

100-11943%
120-13940%

$68.0K Vol.daily

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3117%
October 319%

$24.0K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Pipeline97%
Healthcare95%

$13.8K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$169.4K Vol.21 days left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$691.1K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M72%
270M9%

$31.0K Vol.monthly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China78%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15924%
180-19923%

$34.4K Vol.daily

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar19%

$154.7K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff43%
Jared Kushner43%

$1.3M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman77%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

10%chance

$63.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

December 3178%
October 3164%

$68.9K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

98%chance

$642.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+19%
180-19918%

$18.7K Vol.daily

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202756%
Pete Hegseth8%

$102.3K Vol.annual

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Barack Obama96%
Jon Ossoff95%

$109.0K Vol.monthly

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20923%

$324.9K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3135%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez76%

$67.9K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%18%
4.75%15%

$19.5K Vol.

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.1K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3075%

$390.9K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%89%
↓ 36%66%

$3.0K Vol.

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3121%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mohammed bin Salman98%
Friedrich Merz92%

$207.5K Vol.monthly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+33%
160-17920%

$2.2K Vol.daily

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Dario Amodei49%
Sam Altman48%

$51.5K Vol.monthly

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202737%
December 31, 20265%

$33.1K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Nobel80%
Pilot75%

$2.9K Vol.weekly

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1398%
October 1498%

$36.6K Vol.monthly

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

2%chance

$378.3K Vol.6 days left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+94%
37.0+85%

$1.5K Vol.weekly

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 312%

$507.0K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
Alaska99%

$23.0K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie39%
Stefan Brodie17%

$509.3K Vol.

Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?

$409.8K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil19%

$493.8K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

3%chance

$255.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro18%
Romeu Zema<1%

$53.4K Vol.

What will Katie Zacharia say during the next White House press briefing?

Go Ahead84%
President / Trump 30+ times83%

$815.5 Vol.annual

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

2%chance

$545.3K Vol.2 months left

How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

4-687%
7-95%

$104.3K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

11%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3028%
December 316%

$1.9K Vol.

What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Nidal Hasan50%
Rigged50%

$890.6 Vol.weekly

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202748%

$1.0M Vol.

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?

December 31, 202745%
December 31, 202639%

$16.6K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines43%
Anduril21%

$214.4K Vol.

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?