Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change63%
- 25 bps increase36%
$38.8M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1599%
October 1797%

$12.6M Vol.monthly

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3140%

$40.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase80%
No change19%

$3.4M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3127%
October 316%

$152.9K Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change56%
25 bps increase43%

$479.1K Vol.monthly

$1.4M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$246.8K Vol.20 days left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3026%

$3.1M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$9.0M Vol.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%60%
≥ 4.5%21%

$7.1M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL26%

$506.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$216.5K Vol.17 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Kaitlan Collins89%

$131.9K Vol.monthly

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Shit / Ass77%
Nevada75%

$16.9K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3120%
October 316%

$49.3K Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

180-19938%
200+35%

$50.0K Vol.daily

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+99%

$16.4K Vol.weekly

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3112%
October 313%

$9.5K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202640%
November 30, 202632%

$706.7K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Montana?

Coal / Diesel82%
Shit / Ass73%

$7.9K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+42%
180-19923%

$27.7K Vol.daily

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3127%
October 316%

$6.7M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

>99%chance

$664.9K Vol.2 months left

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

17%chance

$76.6K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202743%
Pete Hegseth9%

$107.1K Vol.annual

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan21%
Mahmoud Khalil18%

$500.1K Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Nobel79%
Handsome75%

$6.9K Vol.weekly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement63%
Likud34%

$64.2K Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

10%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

December 319%
November 304%

$30.3K Vol.

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%86%
↓ 36%75%

$7.0K Vol.

SBF released from custody in 2026?

2%chance

$468.2K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+28%
140-15918%

$7.3K Vol.daily

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez56%

$71.7K Vol.monthly

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen88%

$210.6K Vol.monthly

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

12%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3121%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan18%
Germany16%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1498%
October 1697%

$39.5K Vol.monthly

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

1%chance

$228.3K Vol.20 days left

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3077%

$393.0K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
North Carolina>99%

$24.9K Vol.

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

6%chance

$31.9K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman29%
Mark Carney14%

$53.2K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M66%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Trump approval rating on October 16?

37.4–37.524%
37.0–37.118%

$3.5K Vol.weekly

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

John Thune46%
Chuck Schumer37%

$11.1K Vol.

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

7%chance

$258.6K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%20%
4.5%18%

$20.8K Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

85%chance

$24.5K Vol.2 months left

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time56%
60+25%

$915.1K Vol.

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

40%chance

$29.1K Vol.2 months left

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3011%
December 314%

$3.0K Vol.

Weed rescheduled by...?

7%chance

$208.7K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

834%
731%

$10.9K Vol.

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie32%
Stefan Brodie17%

$510.2K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

638%
7+28%

$31.6K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

40%chance

$847.0 Vol.3 days left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3157%
Qatar19%

$155.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.9K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3183%
October 3159%

$7.6K Vol.

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

8%chance

$28.8K Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Trump goes to space in 2026?

2%chance

$56.8K Vol.2 months left

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

23%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

3%chance

$87.1K Vol.2 months left

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines44%
Anduril18%

$215.1K Vol.

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

96%chance

$522.8 Vol.2 months left

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

5%chance

$167.3K Vol.2 months left

How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?

1070%
11+20%

$13.3K Vol.

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20917%

$325.4K Vol.

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?

36%chance

$4.1K Vol.17 days left

Who will Trump endorse for President of Brazil?

Flávio Bolsonaro19%
Romeu Zema1%

$53.8K Vol.

What will Trump say in October?

Caddie62%
Weave61%

$10.5K Vol.monthly

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

31%chance

$546.7K Vol.9 months left

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?

22%chance

$2.3K Vol.2 months left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 308%

$10.3K Vol.

Trump

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?

JD Vance out as VP by...?

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

SAVE Act becomes law by...?

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

Weed rescheduled by...?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on October 17?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Trump goes to space in 2026?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

US strike on Colombia by...?

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Will Trump praise Allah again by October 31?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?