Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$33.4M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1596%
October 3181%

$11.4M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

$39.4M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

33%chance

$526.7K Vol.9 months left

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

18%chance

$172.2K Vol.19 days left

Fed Decision in January?

No change64%
25 bps increase33%

$345.6K Vol.monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

120-13946%
100-11941%

$66.0K Vol.daily

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?

Joe / Biden 10+ times>99%
Hell 10+ times>99%

$31.3K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3110%
October 317%

$16.3K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M75%
270M9%

$30.9K Vol.monthly

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$690.1K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15925%
200+23%

$33.4K Vol.daily

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

December 3178%
October 3173%

$67.5K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3152%
Qatar19%

$154.5K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Jared Kushner42%

$1.3M Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

10%chance

$63.2K Vol.2 months left

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3134%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3118%

$1.8M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

76%chance

$162.3K Vol.22 days left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+19%
140-15916%

$17.4K Vol.daily

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman69%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Barack Obama97%

$108.7K Vol.monthly

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19025%
205-20920%

$324.8K Vol.

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3137%
October 317%

$6.6M Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202757%
Pete Hegseth8%

$101.0K Vol.annual

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro85%
Delcy Rodriguez79%

$67.7K Vol.monthly

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.0K Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mohammed bin Salman96%
Friedrich Merz94%

$207.1K Vol.monthly

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%26%
4.75%16%

$18.7K Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.1M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Dario Amodei47%
Sam Altman41%

$51.5K Vol.monthly

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3111%
October 313%

$507.0K Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Save America Act94%
Pipeline91%

$2.4K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3182%
November 3076%

$389.8K Vol.

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1398%
October 1497%

$36.6K Vol.monthly

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

3%chance

$378.3K Vol.7 days left

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement81%
Likud12%

$59.7K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

3%chance

$154.7K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Drill Baby Drill>99%
Budget>99%

$1.7K Vol.weekly

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.0K Vol.2 months left

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3123%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202747%

$1.0M Vol.

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?