Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$35.8M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA80%
Apple16%

$8.2M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase32%

$444.3K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%44%
3.7%42%

$250.2K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA95%
Apple5%

$290.7K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.2K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%57%
0.5%27%

$89.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$210.9K Vol.annual

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%45%
0.3%32%

$70.0K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance

$658.6K Vol.56 days left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change75%
25 bps increase24%

$118.9K Vol.annual

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet89%
Microsoft11%

$60.0K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause17%

$295.2K Vol.daily

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%34%
Below 5.15%26%

$69.5K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple91%
NVIDIA8%

$29.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease90%
No Change5%

$57.3K Vol.annual

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%56%
5.5%33%

$976.1K Vol.weekly

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K39%
$397K - $407K23%

$20.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$78.5K Vol.annual

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+53%
2.7-2.8M21%

$46.1K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

-0.3% to -0.1%34%
0.0% to 0.2%26%

$36.4K Vol.annual

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%39%
3.5-3.9%30%

$62.5K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.6K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%48%
4.50-4.99%22%

$162.7K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause60%
Pause-Hike-Hike11%

$33.7K Vol.daily

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet59%
Microsoft30%

$71.4K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M59%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3050%
$2.10 to $2.2025%

$35.0K Vol.monthly

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%45%
2.5%35%

$49.7K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%51%
1.2-1.5%35%

$70.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$172.8K Vol.annual

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%54%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$113.6K Vol.

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%15%

$67.6K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

87%chance

$33.5K Vol.12 days left

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K35%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change77%
25 bps increase24%

$36.4K Vol.

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.1K Vol.monthly

$139.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.3K Vol.annual

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%34%
2.0-2.5%26%

$48.6K Vol.annual

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%55%
5.00%49%

$16.6K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K27%
$445K - $458K25%

$11.1K Vol.monthly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%67%
Below 5.15%52%

$13.8K Vol.weekly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple68%
NVIDIA14%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%55%
5.35%48%

$26.0K Vol.weekly

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.5%32%
5.9%+24%

$29.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K47%
$503K - $507K17%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.3K Vol.annual

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change93%
Decrease7%

$60.8K Vol.annual

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$1.00-$1.10T35%
$900B-$1.00T34%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%47%
0.6–0.7%17%

$35.3K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+96%
<0.75%<1%

$102.0K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.926%
51.0 to 51.925%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change61%
25 bps decrease34%

$11.1K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%60%
Below 4.67%46%

$6.3K Vol.

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$11.7K Vol.

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines42%
Anduril18%

$215.0K Vol.

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%75%
4.92%72%

$11.1K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change84%
25 bps decrease12%

$53.9K Vol.annual

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%49%
0-1.0%45%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.7K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%56%
5.08%47%

$15.7K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%44%
0.2 to 0.3%28%

$28.1K Vol.monthly

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%78%
↑ 4.5%14%

$1.9M Vol.

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

↑ 7.50%72%
↓ 6.50%13%

$98.7K Vol.

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%80%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.92%57%
Below 4.95%57%

$10.7K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

RBC3%
Santander3%

$82.6K Vol.monthly

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%46%
3.0%+41%

$55.5K Vol.

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

13%chance

$33.8K Vol.3 months left

What will the median home value in the LA Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.115M24%
$1.115M - $1.126M20%

$17.3K Vol.monthly

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

68%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change19%

$33.3K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change70%
25 bps increase21%

$9.9K Vol.annual

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M20%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in Miami be on December 31?

$809K - $830K26%
$788K - $809K22%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.0%–0.8%25%
0.8%–1.6%25%

$43.2K Vol.annual

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.8K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%86%
5.25%40%

$101.4K Vol.

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%76%
Below 4.60%60%

$12.8K Vol.

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M26%
$1.125M - $1.146M24%

$12.5K Vol.monthly

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.70%37%
5.73%27%

$19.5K Vol.

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

43%chance

$2.2K Vol.2 months left

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.0%33%
3.1%27%

$14.6K Vol.monthly

Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?

November 3071%
October 3167%

$5.9K Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%70%
5.80%45%

$211.3K Vol.

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%75%
Below 5.52%53%

$13.7K Vol.

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.923%
53.0 to 53.923%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%57%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.5K Vol.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

43.0 to 45.953%
46.0 to 48.944%

$26.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.50%16%
Below 4.45%10%

$84.9K Vol.

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change96%
25 bps hike4%

$38.6K Vol.annual

Central Bank of Chile decision in October

No change92%
25 bps decrease5%

$10.3K Vol.monthly

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

22%chance

$27.1K Vol.2 months left

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+86%
31M+79%

$39.9K Vol.monthly

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

2%chance

$42.4K Vol.2 months left

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.3K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%77%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

14%chance

$12.6K Vol.2 months left

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

42%chance

$4.1K Vol.17 days left

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m56%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

How many jobs added in October?

100k+31%
50k to 75k16%

$21.2K Vol.monthly

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

13%chance

$13.8K Vol.2 months left

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.2%36%
0.3%29%

$12.1K Vol.monthly

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

28%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?

$14.9K Vol.

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.5K Vol.annual

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change50%
25 bps hike47%

$32.6K Vol.annual

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

800–900B46%
700–800B21%

$25.0K Vol.

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

$7.000+59%
$9.000+30%

$23.0K Vol.

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%chance

$8.2K Vol.2 months left

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

8%chance

$8.9K Vol.2 months left

Will gas hit __ by end of October?

↑ $4.5050%
↓ $4.3047%

$1.1K Vol.monthly

What will the median home value in the Dallas Metro area be on December 31?

$383K - $387K33%
$379K - $383K32%

$8.3 Vol.monthly

Economy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

US recession by end of 2026?

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?

OPEC dissolves in 2026?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

Fed abolished before 2027?

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?