Economy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change82%
- 25 bps increase19%
$35.1M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA81%
Apple15%

$8.2M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$435.1K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%46%
3.7%41%

$247.3K Vol.monthly

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA94%
Apple5%

$290.6K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$576.2K Vol.annual

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$210.9K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%60%
0.5%26%

$86.5K Vol.monthly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$658.1K Vol.56 days left

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change74%
25 bps increase23%

$118.7K Vol.annual

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%34%
Below 5.15%26%

$69.1K Vol.

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%29%

$68.2K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$294.1K Vol.daily

3rd Largest Company end of October?

Alphabet84%
Microsoft16%

$57.4K Vol.monthly

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple90%
NVIDIA8%

$29.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease90%
No Change5%

$57.0K Vol.annual

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change89%
Decrease12%

$78.5K Vol.annual

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on December 31?

<$397K39%
$407K - $417K19%

$19.0K Vol.monthly

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.8M+52%
2.7-2.8M22%

$46.0K Vol.monthly

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.0% to 0.2%28%
-0.3% to -0.1%26%

$36.4K Vol.annual

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%38%
3.5-3.9%27%

$62.5K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%61%
5.5%33%

$972.6K Vol.weekly

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M27%
3.0 - 3.5M24%

$116.5K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?

30M+96%
31M+90%

$38.1K Vol.monthly

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%48%
5.50-5.99%23%

$162.7K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change59%
25 bps decrease36%

$11.0K Vol.annual

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

52%chance

$18.1K Vol.2 months left

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3049%
$2.10 to $2.2028%

$35.0K Vol.monthly

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike11%

$33.4K Vol.daily

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet59%
Microsoft30%

$71.4K Vol.monthly

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M59%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%51%
1.2-1.5%35%

$70.1K Vol.annual

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change84%
25 bps increase15%

$172.8K Vol.annual

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%46%
2.5%35%

$49.6K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%71%
4.6-4.9%16%

$67.6K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

87%chance

$33.5K Vol.13 days left

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change77%
25 bps increase24%

$36.4K Vol.

What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?

$407K - $411K31%
$403K - $407K19%

$18.2K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase92%
No change10%

$306.3K Vol.annual

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%33%
2.0-2.5%26%

$48.6K Vol.annual

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%55%
5.10%47%

$16.6K Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.18%69%
Below 5.15%52%

$13.8K Vol.weekly

US economic state at the end of 2026?

$103.5K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.32%55%
5.35%48%

$26.0K Vol.weekly

What will be in the UK Budget?

CGT increase44%
Fuel duty increase28%

$11.7K Vol.

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple68%
NVIDIA14%

$30.7K Vol.monthly

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance

$1.1M Vol.2 months left

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on December 31?

<$503K40%
$503K - $507K18%

$18.3K Vol.monthly

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change55%
25 bps increase43%

$41.3K Vol.annual

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$1.00-$1.10T35%
$900B-$1.00T34%

$11.2K Vol.monthly

EU emergency diesel stocks end of November 2026?

30M+91%
31M+85%

$34.1K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%46%
0.2–0.3%22%

$35.3K Vol.monthly

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+31%
5.7%13%

$28.9K Vol.monthly

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+98%
<0.75%<1%

$102.0K Vol.

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.924%
51.0 to 51.922%

$11.7K Vol.monthly

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%60%
Below 4.67%46%

$6.3K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.0 to 0.1%46%
0.2 to 0.3%26%

$28.1K Vol.monthly

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change94%
Decrease7%

$60.7K Vol.annual

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%60%
3.0–3.4%20%

$138.9K Vol.monthly

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines38%
Anduril18%

$215.0K Vol.

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%55%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.6K Vol.

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.95%62%
Below 4.89%58%

$10.7K Vol.

What will the median home value in New York City be on December 31?

$497K - $510K22%
$445K - $458K21%

$10.6K Vol.monthly

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%85%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.8K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change77%
25 bps decrease21%

$53.9K Vol.annual

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?

4.86%75%
4.89%55%

$11.0K Vol.

Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?

770M>99%
780M98%

$3.4K Vol.

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.55%76%
Below 5.52%49%

$13.7K Vol.

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

1.0-2.0%49%
0-1.0%44%

$57.8K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%80%
2.0-2.4%20%

$57.6K Vol.

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%5%
5.5%2%

$563.7K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?

5.11%51%
5.08%46%

$15.7K Vol.

Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8K Vol.2 months left

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%78%
↑ 4.5%13%

$1.9M Vol.

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M24%
$1.083M - $1.104M21%

$12.5K Vol.monthly

Will Swiss Parliament pass the UBS capital law by June 30, 2027?

66%chance

$2.3K Vol.8 months left

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase75%
No change19%

$33.3K Vol.annual

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M21%

$14.0K Vol.monthly

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change44%

$93.8K Vol.annual

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%56%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.5K Vol.

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3114%
November 307%

$10.3K Vol.

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%86%
5.25%39%

$101.4K Vol.

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%66%
5.80%46%

$211.2K Vol.

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Santander4%
RBC3%

$82.5K Vol.monthly

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

0.0%–0.8%24%
0.8%–1.6%24%

$43.2K Vol.annual

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%76%
Below 4.60%56%

$12.8K Vol.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026

43.0 to 45.947%
46.0 to 48.944%

$26.4K Vol.monthly

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease26%

$24.2K Vol.annual

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

8%chance

$122.1K Vol.2 months left

Trump issues AI Restrictions Executive Order by...?

December 3117%
November 306%

$23.7K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.3K Vol.monthly

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.0%32%
3.1%26%

$14.5K Vol.monthly

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%29%

$6.5K Vol.monthly

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%60%
25-29.9%36%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

$76.3K Vol.

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change95%
25 bps hike5%

$38.4K Vol.annual

Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)

<1600.0041%
1600.00–1699.9936%

$22.4K Vol.monthly

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%90%
0-1%6%

$111.6K Vol.

Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?

42%chance

$4.0K Vol.17 days left

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.2m55%
1.3m14%

$188.0K Vol.

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.923%
55.0 to 55.921%

$13.8K Vol.monthly

Bank of England rate hike in 2026?

98%chance

$58.8K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase57%
No change36%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.2%36%
0.3%28%

$12.2K Vol.monthly

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

25%chance

$1.6K Vol.2 months left