Kevin Warsh

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$33.8M Vol.monthly

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What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%50%
4.0%23%

$7.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$346.0K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike62%
Hike–Pause–Pause21%

$286.4K Vol.daily

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

2 (50 bps)62%
1 (25 bps)22%

$954.9K Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%55%
5.5%32%

$969.4K Vol.weekly

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

80%chance

$647.4K Vol.57 days left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%18%
4.75%15%

$19.5K Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause51%
Pause-Hike-Hike13%

$31.5K Vol.daily

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting54%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

How many dissent at the October Fed meeting?

031%
326%

$19.6K Vol.daily

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%15%

$1.9M Vol.

How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?

044%
128%

$29.0K Vol.daily

How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?

056%
324%

$21.1K Vol.daily

Fed abolished before 2027?

2%chance

$8.2K Vol.2 months left

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3111%
November 307%

$10.0K Vol.

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

2%chance

$30.3K Vol.2 months left

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20262%

$49.3K Vol.