Economic Policy

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$34.9M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%66%
4.0%23%

$7.1M Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.1K Vol.monthly

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)2%

$54.1M Vol.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance

$655.9K Vol.57 days left

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike65%
Hike–Pause–Pause20%

$293.3K Vol.daily

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting53%
June 2027 Meeting37%

$3.8M Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause59%
Pause-Hike-Hike12%

$33.4K Vol.daily

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%
25 bps increase3%

$199.5K Vol.annual

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance

$2.3M Vol.3 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%21%
4.75%14%

$19.7K Vol.

Swiss National Bank decision in December?

No Change74%
25 bps increase23%

$35.8K Vol.

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.2K Vol.monthly

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%42%

$63.3K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase52%
No change43%

$93.5K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%17%

$1.9M Vol.

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%56%
1.2-1.5%31%

$68.5K Vol.annual

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

13%chance

$177.0K Vol.2 months left

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in December?

25 bps increase57%
No change36%

$38.9K Vol.annual

Reserve Bank of India decision in December

25 bps increase64%
No Change22%

$10.8K Vol.monthly

US recession by end of 2027?

34%chance

$10.9K Vol.1 year left

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%51%
>2.5%49%

$88.5K Vol.monthly

No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27?

88%chance

$32.2K Vol.13 days left

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase66%
No change31%

$13.5K Vol.annual

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

3%chance

$5.8K Vol.2 months left

ECB rate cut in 2026?

4%chance

$36.1K Vol.2 months left