Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$35.0M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3181%

$12.3M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.8M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%63%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3131%
October 318%

$104.6K Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$235.8K Vol.21 days left

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase30%

$418.6K Vol.monthly

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.1M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 318%

$8.9M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Healthcare86%
America First20%

$58.7K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$340.6K Vol.Ended

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

$1.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.4M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3130%
October 319%

$41.8K Vol.

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

13%chance

$74.5K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15931%
120-13927%

$44.6K Vol.daily

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+92%

$9.9K Vol.weekly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+28%
180-19916%

$23.5K Vol.daily

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3113%
October 315%

$5.8K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202746%
Pete Hegseth10%

$106.6K Vol.annual

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
160-17920%

$4.5K Vol.daily

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3131%
October 318%

$6.6M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Barack Obama99%
Jon Ossoff97%

$112.8K Vol.monthly

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

Trump approval rating on October 16?

37.4–37.524%
<36.820%

$3.2K Vol.weekly

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

73%chance

$111.0K Vol.2 years left

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

December 319%
November 304%

$30.2K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Benjamin Netanyahu71%

$71.2K Vol.monthly

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%96%
↓ 36%74%

$5.8K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3124%
October 313%

$1.8M Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Germany15%
Japan14%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement80%
Likud18%

$62.6K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202768%
June 30, 202748%

$1.1M Vol.

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen92%

$210.1K Vol.monthly

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$392.2K Vol.

Who will be arrested before 2027?

John Brennan20%
Mahmoud Khalil17%

$495.8K Vol.

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.7K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)

Pilot>99%
Nobel78%

$3.8K Vol.weekly

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1698%
October 1497%

$38.5K Vol.monthly

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

11%chance

$31.8K Vol.2 months left

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M62%
270M6%

$32.7K Vol.monthly

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?

Shit / Ass81%
Border 20+ times70%

$1.5K Vol.

SBF released from custody in 2026?

1%chance

$466.6K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Donald Brodie37%
Stefan Brodie17%

$510.2K Vol.

Maduro Prison Time?

No prison time55%
60+21%

$915.0K Vol.

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT35%
CATL26%

$475.6K Vol.

Lai Ching-te visits US by...?

June 3014%
December 313%

$2.9K Vol.

U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by...?

December 3183%
October 3159%

$7.5K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?

834%
731%

$10.9K Vol.

Which states will Trump visit before the midterms?

Georgia>99%
North Carolina>99%

$24.0K Vol.

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Tennessee?

082%
113%

$1.1K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman20%
Dario Amodei14%

$52.4K Vol.monthly

How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?

638%
7+28%

$31.6K Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3155%
Qatar19%

$155.4K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

November 3085%
October 3172%

$7.8K Vol.annual

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

17%chance

$15.7K Vol.8 months left

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202730%
December 31, 20265%

$33.2K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

JD Vance out as VP by...?

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

SBF released from custody in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?