Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase19%
$35.0M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3182%

$12.2M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3142%

$39.7M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change22%

$3.2M Vol.monthly

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%59%
4.0%24%

$7.1M Vol.

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by...?

December 3132%
October 3110%

$77.2K Vol.

Fed Decision in January?

No change67%
25 bps increase31%

$418.3K Vol.monthly

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$232.8K Vol.21 days left

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Healthcare96%
Save America Act96%

$42.6K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

18%chance

$203.9K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

99%chance

$662.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.4M Vol.

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

<1%chance

$319.2K Vol.Ended

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

$1.8M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3122%
October 313%

$38.4K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

120-13930%
140-15930%

$44.4K Vol.daily

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

13%chance

$74.0K Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?

36.8+>99%
37.0+92%

$9.8K Vol.weekly

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.3M Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+35%
100-11914%

$22.5K Vol.daily

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202745%
Pete Hegseth13%

$106.0K Vol.annual

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3131%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

200+23%
160-17920%

$4.4K Vol.daily

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%94%
↓ 36%69%

$4.7K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$502.7K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3124%
October 314%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Jon Ossoff97%
Barack Obama96%

$112.1K Vol.monthly

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%16%
Below 4.6%6%

$353.8K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

73%chance

$111.0K Vol.2 years left

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by...?

December 3122%
October 315%

$3.1K Vol.

Lisa Cook officially out as Fed Governor by...?

December 3112%
November 304%

$30.2K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

South Korea18%
Germany15%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Which party will Trump Endorse in the 2026 Israeli Election?

No Endorsement80%
Likud17%

$62.6K Vol.

Will Trump be impeached by...?

December 31, 202769%
June 30, 202748%

$1.1M Vol.

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen91%

$209.9K Vol.monthly

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

11%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Trump approval rating on October 16?

38.4+28%
38.2–38.318%

$2.5K Vol.weekly

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$352.3K Vol.

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez74%

$70.3K Vol.monthly

JD Vance out as VP by...?

4%chance

$155.7K Vol.2 months left

Who will be arrested before 2027?

Mahmoud Khalil21%
John Brennan20%

$495.6K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3075%

$391.7K Vol.

Will Trump rename an ocean by...?

December 31, 202730%
December 31, 20265%

$33.2K Vol.

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Trump out as President before 2027?

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

JD Vance out as VP by...?