Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1598%
- October 1797%
$12.6M Vol.monthly

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3185%

$34.6M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3140%

$40.0M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.4M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$46.0M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi42%
Jared Kushner40%

$1.4M Vol.

$476.3K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$595.8K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.17 days left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$246.8K Vol.20 days left

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

China9%
Russia9%

$70.2K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3026%

$3.1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3145%
November 3031%

$1.3M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202719%
December 3111%

$4.9M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$9.0M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$227.5K Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 1180%
October 476%

$883.8K Vol.monthly

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3130%
October 317%

$189.0K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$174.2K Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1687%
October 1877%

$291.0K Vol.monthly

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 1295%
October 295%

$42.5K Vol.monthly

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT31%
CATL26%

$506.2K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

12%chance

$216.5K Vol.17 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland15%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$175.9K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$96.0K Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3134%
November 3033%

$334.7K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3130%
October 3110%

$359.8K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.5K Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.0K Vol.17 days left

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3119%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$776.7K Vol.47 days left

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3177%
November 3061%

$535.5K Vol.

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$167.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3194%
October 1593%

$29.2K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3051%
October 3140%

$109.7K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202640%
November 30, 202632%

$706.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3194%
October 1594%

$21.4K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$62.8K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

22%chance

$468.0K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman79%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$228.3K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3114%
October 314%

$60.3K Vol.

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

40%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$829.3K Vol.17 days left

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

4%chance

$147.0K Vol.2 months left

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$86.9K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

5%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

$39.2K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$48.7K Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

December 315%
October 312%

$1.1M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

10%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Justice?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Tally Gotliv14%

$49.0K Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3072%
October 3154%

$6.7K Vol.

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3122%
October 3119%

$96.0K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$53.2K Vol.

Riyadh airport reopens (50+ departures) by...?

October 3170%
October 2034%

$5.1K Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

20-2428%
25-2926%

$7.9K Vol.weekly

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

12%chance

$1.8M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Friedrich Merz93%
Ursula von der Leyen88%

$210.6K Vol.monthly

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202732%
December 31, 202611%

$2.6K Vol.

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

340%
234%

$27.7K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Japan19%
Germany16%

$680.9K Vol.annual

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$10.5K Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1591%
October 2890%

$141.8K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11%chance

$3.5M Vol.1 year left

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan50%
Rafael Grossi19%

$224.8K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3077%

$393.0K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: October

96%chance

$8.9K Vol.17 days left

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 316%
October 154%

$22.1K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

10%chance

$6.9K Vol.17 days left

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

26-2724%
24-2524%

$19.1K Vol.

Israel Election: Amcha Yisrael # of seats?

<461%
4-637%

$11.2K Vol.

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

6%chance

$148.0K Vol.2 months left

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 598%
October 893%

$65.7K Vol.monthly

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

24%chance

$66.5K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Sam Altman29%
Mark Carney13%

$53.3K Vol.monthly

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Yaron Zelekha17%

$45.4K Vol.

USS George H.W. Bush in CENTCOM on...?

October 3187%
November 3080%

$10.8K Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$534.6K Vol.2 months left

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Houthis target Pakistan by...?

December 318%
October 313%

$4.2K Vol.

Another NATO article 4 by...?

December 3132%
October 318%

$183.5K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3118%
October 316%

$3.5M Vol.

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3115%
October 156%

$39.7K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

92%chance

$173.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

23%chance

$60.1K Vol.2 months left

Geopolitics

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Netanyahu out by...?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Nothing Ever Happens: October

Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?

Will Wildberries announce a bankruptcy before 2027?

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?