Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1598%
- October 3181%
$12.3M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1896%

$1.8M Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3186%

$34.4M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3167%
December 3143%

$39.8M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$216.0K Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1499%
October 1596%

$403.6K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.2M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

14%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.9M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance

$2.4M Vol.18 days left

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$154.5K Vol.

$76.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3116%
October 317%

$268.6K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$163.3K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$86.8K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202744%
Netanyahu - Israel PM32%

$1.0M Vol.annual

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202768%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

9%chance

$209.0K Vol.18 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro71%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 486%
October 1185%

$869.7K Vol.monthly

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 595%
October 1194%

$35.6K Vol.monthly

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3137%
November 3035%

$326.9K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3025%

$1.8M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$2.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$46.1K Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3064%
October 3144%

$104.9K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$168.4K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$369.1K Vol.2 months left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$776.6K Vol.48 days left

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%chance

$283.0K Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 314%

$7.4M Vol.

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202718%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3036%

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3060%

$526.6K Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%
November 30, 202632%

$703.4K Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$3.5M Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3122%
November 3017%

$523.9K Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 312%

$4.3M Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3125%
October 318%

$346.5K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$101.0K Vol.18 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

No Next Minister by Feb 2834%
Ofer Winter17%

$38.5K Vol.

Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?

December 3186%
October 3131%

$461.3K Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner42%
Steve Witkoff42%

$1.4M Vol.

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

5%chance

$2.4M Vol.2 months left

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela17%
Kuwait8%

$904.9K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin80%
Mohammed bin Salman78%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3172%
October 1565%

$20.1K Vol.

Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by...?

December 31, 202621%
October 31, 20267%

$115.5K Vol.

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%chance

$544.3K Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%chance

$228.2K Vol.2 months left

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202756%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2943%
30-3430%

$54.4K Vol.weekly

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

October 3169%
November 3069%

$5.2K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$50.6K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$59.0K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3114%
October 317%

$86.7K Vol.

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 315%

$22.8K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 1561%
October 3159%

$14.5K Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

4%chance

$145.9K Vol.2 months left

Turkey military action against Yemen by...?

December 3111%
October 311%

$5.8K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$462.4K Vol.2 months left

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?