Trump

Fed Decision in October?
- No change81%
- 25 bps increase20%
$33.7M Vol.monthly

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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3182%

$11.6M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3182%

$1.3M Vol.

$39.5M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

33%chance

$546.3K Vol.9 months left

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

6%chance

$24.0M Vol.2 months left

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%52%
4.0%26%

$7.0M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.0M Vol.monthly

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$345.7K Vol.monthly

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

23%chance

$177.6K Vol.18 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202767%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?

Muscle / Muscular21%
Aluminum14%

$33.6K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 6 - October 13, 2026?

100-11947%
120-13940%

$67.7K Vol.daily

Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

December 3117%
October 319%

$24.0K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3137%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

≤4739%
4817%

$3.2M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance

$168.7K Vol.21 days left

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Alaska?

Healthcare98%
Save America Act94%

$12.0K Vol.

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M74%
270M9%

$30.9K Vol.monthly

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$690.2K Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 9 - October 16, 2026?

140-15925%
180-19923%

$34.3K Vol.daily

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar19%

$154.5K Vol.

Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by...?

December 3178%
October 3167%

$68.8K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman74%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

10%chance

$63.3K Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner43%
Steve Witkoff43%

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts October 13 - October 20, 2026?

200+19%
180-19917%

$18.2K Vol.daily

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?

None before 202759%
Pete Hegseth8%

$102.2K Vol.annual

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Barack Obama96%
Jon Ossoff95%

$108.9K Vol.monthly

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

December 3136%
October 3110%

$6.6M Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19024%
205-20918%

$324.9K Vol.

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

18%chance

$501.8K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump publicly praise by October 31?

Flávio Bolsonaro84%
Delcy Rodriguez76%

$67.8K Vol.monthly

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?

4.25%21%
4.75%15%

$19.5K Vol.

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$183.1K Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

2%chance

$35.7M Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?

Mohammed bin Salman98%
Friedrich Merz93%

$207.5K Vol.monthly

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

18%chance

$31.3K Vol.2 months left

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

↓ 37%89%
↓ 36%66%

$2.8K Vol.

Kash Patel out by...?

December 3124%
October 312%

$1.8M Vol.

US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?

December 3110%
October 313%

$507.0K Vol.

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3181%
November 3076%

$389.9K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

5%chance

$42.7K Vol.2 months left

Who will Trump meet with by October 31?

Dario Amodei53%
Sam Altman38%

$51.5K Vol.monthly

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

October 1398%
October 1497%

$36.6K Vol.monthly

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

3%chance

$378.3K Vol.6 days left

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

4%chance

$215.2K Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?

3%chance

$154.7K Vol.2 months left

Trump

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

What will Trump say this week? (October 5 - October 11)

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by...?

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?