Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 12>99%
- October 1596%
$11.1M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 12>99%
October 1595%

$1.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$979.8K Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.8M Vol.2 months left

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3166%
December 3143%

$39.4M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot46%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.7M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3186%

$34.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3127%
October 317%

$8.8M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$111.4K Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$75.9M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

$2.0M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202766%

$8.5M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$45.0K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.2M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.8M Vol.2 months left

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

4%chance

$350.8K Vol.2 months left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3152%
November 3047%

$287.8K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3111%

$27.2M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202752%
Netanyahu - Israel PM23%

$969.4K Vol.annual

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$758.1K Vol.49 days left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

<1%chance

$2.2M Vol.19 days left

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20263%

$28.8M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3152%
November 3040%

$1.3M Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3122%
October 315%

$7.3M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

6%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3130%
October 317%

$10.2M Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$148.5K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3120%
October 319%

$186.3K Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3135%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

28%chance

$531.5K Vol.2 months left

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3180%
November 3063%

$505.2K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$171.9K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1391%
October 1490%

$197.5K Vol.

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3067%
October 3136%

$77.9K Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

3%chance

$2.6M Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner43%
Steve Witkoff43%

$1.3M Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka36%
Kramatorsk11%

$1.7M Vol.

Netanyahu out by...?

42%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3124%
October 318%

$335.6K Vol.

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

25-2956%
20-2419%

$41.1K Vol.monthly

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$818.6K Vol.19 days left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$7.9K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3018%

$511.9K Vol.

Iran Nuke before 2027?

3%chance

$1.4M Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202719%
December 3111%

$4.8M Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin81%
Mohammed bin Salman69%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

11%chance

$1.7M Vol.2 months left

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State4%

$40.2M Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3129%
October 317%

$81.8K Vol.

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?