Geopolitics

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1597%
- October 3182%
$11.6M Vol.monthly

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 1597%
October 3182%

$1.2M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.0M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%chance

$73.9M Vol.2 months left

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3168%
December 3144%

$39.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot47%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%

$45.8M Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 13>99%
October 1498%

$383.2K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%
December 31, 20265%

$29.0M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%
October 317%

$8.9M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 3186%

$34.1M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$120.6K Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%
October 311%

$75.9M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202760%
March 31, 202740%

$2.0M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.0M Vol.2 months left

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20279%
December 313%

$4.3M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$64.9K Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202747%
Netanyahu - Israel PM32%

$1.0M Vol.annual

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$52.5K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

23%chance

$177.4K Vol.18 days left

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 316%

$227.1K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$40.8K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202767%
November 30, 202767%

$8.5M Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$16.9M Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202721%
December 3111%

$27.3M Vol.

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3148%
November 3041%

$301.3K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3113%
October 313%

$2.3M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$116.0K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3120%
October 315%

$7.3M Vol.

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

25-2950%
30-3428%

$49.3K Vol.weekly

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3114%
October 316%

$20.4K Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3028%

$3.0M Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027

Donald Trump9%
Yulia Navalnaya8%

$14.2K Vol.

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3125%
October 317%

$148.5K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro72%
Delcy Rodríguez25%

$98.2M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$45.9K Vol.

Where will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next?

$172.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3153%
November 3036%

$1.3M Vol.

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202646%
November 30, 202630%

$690.2K Vol.

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

$54.7K Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance

$759.4K Vol.48 days left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3057%
October 3136%

$84.0K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3178%
November 3060%

$513.1K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

7%chance

$823.4K Vol.18 days left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$92.3K Vol.18 days left

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin79%
Mohammed bin Salman74%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei88%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?

No Meeting by December 3153%
Qatar19%

$154.5K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$10.2M Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

23%chance

$458.7K Vol.2 months left

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

5%chance

$142.2K Vol.2 months left

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi43%
Jared Kushner42%

$1.3M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3134%
November 3024%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?

63%chance

$72.4K Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$162.3K Vol.21 days left

Next Israeli Minister of Finance?

$43.6K Vol.

Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?

December 3123%
October 318%

$82.5K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 3158%
October 1552%

$10.7K Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.1M Vol.2 months left

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

341%
232%

$24.6K Vol.

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202750%
March 31, 202742%

$400.2K Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US1%

$3.7M Vol.

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Druzkhivka36%
Sloviansk8%

$1.7M Vol.

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$3.5M Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3114%
October 313%

$55.2K Vol.

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

3%chance

$1.3M Vol.2 months left

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3126%
November 3018%

$512.4K Vol.

US military action against Cuba by...?

11%chance

$5.4M Vol.2 months left

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 3164%
October 1557%

$13.9K Vol.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Venezuela17%
Kuwait8%

$897.9K Vol.