Geopolitics

97 events

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
- October 1598%
- October 1794%
$12.9M Vol.monthly

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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 1598%
October 1894%

$34.7M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

$1.5M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu27%

$46.2M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3165%
December 3138%

$40.0M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 319%
October 311%

$76.1M Vol.

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Abbas Araghchi41%
Steve Witkoff40%

$1.5M Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3128%
October 318%

$9.0M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 15>99%
October 1897%

$1.9M Vol.

Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

Saudi Arabia19%
China10%

$83.8K Vol.

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

October 1596%
October 1694%

$477.3K Vol.

Houthis enter Aden by...?

December 3127%
November 3016%

$595.9K Vol.

$1.4M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3132%
November 3024%

$1.9M Vol.

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3136%
November 3025%

$3.1M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance

$44.1M Vol.2 months left

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance

$74.0M Vol.2 months left

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202719%
December 3111%

$4.9M Vol.

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance

$14.9M Vol.2 months left

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$1.3M Vol.

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202745%
Netanyahu - Israel PM30%

$1.1M Vol.annual

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%
November 3011%

$16.9M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

$192.4K Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro68%
Delcy Rodríguez24%

$98.3M Vol.

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 480%
October 1180%

$884.4K Vol.monthly

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3130%
October 317%

$189.1K Vol.

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 3117%
October 317%

$298.0K Vol.

Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

October 1686%
October 1585%

$291.2K Vol.monthly

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3113%
November 307%

$19.9M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%
November 30, 202767%

$8.6M Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance

$3.6M Vol.2 months left

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

CXMT30%
CATL23%

$506.3K Vol.

Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?

October 295%
October 1195%

$42.7K Vol.monthly

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Somaliland17%
Kuwait7%

$1.8M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%chance

$27.2M Vol.2 months left

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

77%chance

$260.4K Vol.20 days left

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

6%chance

$792.3K Vol.47 days left

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

$233.8K Vol.

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202711%
December 31, 20264%

$29.2M Vol.

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

$277.0K Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

8%chance

$497.6K Vol.8 months left

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

December 3176%
November 3057%

$546.2K Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$97.0K Vol.

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3127%
October 3110%

$363.5K Vol.

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

6%chance

$843.5K Vol.16 days left

Netanyahu out by...?

41%chance

$2.7M Vol.2 months left

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3135%
November 3033%

$336.9K Vol.

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

11%chance

$216.7K Vol.16 days left

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3110%
October 312%

$2.4M Vol.

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

$177.0K Vol.

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%
December 3112%

$27.3M Vol.

Will Iran target an Arab country by...?

October 1597%
October 3197%

$32.7K Vol.

Russia military action against EU country by...?

December 31, 202721%
December 31, 20268%

$262.7K Vol.

Will Iran target Iraq by...?

October 1595%
October 3195%

$26.4K Vol.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

5%chance

$380.7K Vol.2 months left

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?

November 3056%
October 3141%

$112.7K Vol.

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance

$12.5M Vol.2 months left

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

<1%chance

$110.9K Vol.16 days left

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

12%chance

$168.2K Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

No Next Minister by Feb 2833%
Gadi Eizenkot18%

$63.5K Vol.

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

6%chance

$403.4K Vol.2 months left

Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?

December 3122%
October 318%

$29.7K Vol.

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

22%chance

$468.0K Vol.2 months left

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?

4+49%
346%

$32.0K Vol.

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei87%
No Head of State5%

$40.2M Vol.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

3%chance

$11.8M Vol.2 months left

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202639%
November 30, 202628%

$707.5K Vol.

Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?

$55.8K Vol.

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

December 3114%
October 314%

$60.3K Vol.

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman80%
Vladimir Putin80%

$1.3M Vol.monthly

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

$49.7K Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3128%
October 3110%

$10.2M Vol.

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%
US2%

$3.7M Vol.

Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by...?

November 3068%
October 3150%

$8.2K Vol.

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China77%
No meeting by December 3119%

$1.8M Vol.

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

June 30, 202758%
March 31, 202739%

$2.0M Vol.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%
October 31<1%

$18.1M Vol.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

10%chance

$1.9M Vol.2 months left

European military action against Iran by...?

December 316%
October 311%

$331.7K Vol.

Eritrea invades Ethiopia by...?

December 3122%
October 3119%

$96.1K Vol.

Klitschko out as Kyiv mayor by...?

June 30, 202727%
December 31, 202613%

$3.0K Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3119%
October 313%

$7.4M Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

3%chance

$10.9M Vol.2 months left

Will Trump visit Greenland by...?

December 319%
October 31<1%

$354.8K Vol.

Nothing Ever Happens: October

96%chance

$9.2K Vol.16 days left

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

20-2432%
25-2925%

$8.4K Vol.weekly

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

4%chance

$148.1K Vol.2 months left

US strike on Colombia by...?

25%chance

$1.2M Vol.2 months left

Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?

$10.5K Vol.

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

October 1591%
October 2890%

$141.9K Vol.

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

Rebeca Grynspan52%
Rafael Grossi18%

$224.9K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

4%chance

$3.5M Vol.2 months left

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

No Next Minister by Feb 2835%
Matan Kahana17%

$44.2K Vol.

Israel Election: Yashar # of seats?

22-2324%
26-2723%

$19.2K Vol.

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Netanyahu out by...?

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Trump out as President before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Nothing Ever Happens: October

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

US strike on Colombia by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?