Macro Indicators

Fed Decision in October?
- No change80%
- 25 bps increase20%
$34.8M Vol.monthly

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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase76%
No change23%

$3.1M Vol.monthly

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%45%
3.7%38%

$215.0K Vol.monthly

Core CPI MoM - September 2026

0.2%51%
0.3%31%

$60.7K Vol.monthly

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change91%
25 bps increase11%

$555.5K Vol.annual

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%
25 bps increase33%

$346.0K Vol.monthly

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change90%
Decrease11%

$77.6K Vol.annual

September Inflation US - Monthly

0.6%49%
0.5%34%

$74.6K Vol.monthly

Canada Annual Inflation 2026

3.0-3.4%40%
3.5-3.9%31%

$62.2K Vol.monthly

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

3.50% to 3.99%65%
4.00% to 4.49%14%

$84.5K Vol.

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

3.0%+62%
2.8-3.0%16%

$38.6K Vol.

Bank of Russia decision in December?

No change61%
25 bps decrease29%

$10.6K Vol.annual

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%47%
2.5%34%

$48.7K Vol.monthly

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?

4.3-4.6%70%
4.6-4.9%14%

$67.1K Vol.monthly

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%95%
5.0–6.0%3%

$931.3K Vol.

Price of Dozen Eggs in September?

$2.20 to $2.3056%
$2.10 to $2.2028%

$33.3K Vol.monthly

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.4–0.5%40%
0.6–0.7%24%

$34.8K Vol.monthly

Argentina Monthly Inflation - September

1.9 to 2.1%63%
1.6 to 1.8%32%

$32.8K Vol.monthly

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%67%
2.5–3.0%16%

$54.2K Vol.monthly

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

>5.0%76%
4.7-5.0%13%

$92.2K Vol.

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+95%
<0.75%<1%

$101.9K Vol.

South Korea Annual Inflation 2026

2.7% to 2.9%42%
3.0%+41%

$55.4K Vol.

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3%47%
0.0 to 0.1%26%

$27.9K Vol.monthly

Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?

2.5-3.0%27%
2.0-2.5%26%

$47.8K Vol.annual

September Inflation China - Annual

0.9% to 1.0%50%
1.1%+25%

$40.9K Vol.monthly

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

≤1.9%67%
2.0-2.4%19%

$57.3K Vol.

Bank of Mexico Decision in November?

No change78%
25 bps decrease20%

$53.8K Vol.annual

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%37%
4.1%29%

$6.5K Vol.monthly

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

0-1.0%46%
1.0-2.0%46%

$57.7K Vol.monthly

ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026

54.0 to 54.926%
53.0 to 53.922%

$11.3K Vol.monthly

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.3%+46%
1.0-1.2%41%

$63.3K Vol.annual

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%75%
↑ 4.5%14%

$1.9M Vol.

Bank of Brazil decision in December?

25 bps decrease56%
50+ bps decrease27%

$24.2K Vol.annual

Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%78%
2.5-2.9%9%

$75.5K Vol.

JOLTS Job Openings: September 2026

7.4M+32%
<6.8M26%

$13.8K Vol.monthly

PPI YoY - September 2026

5.9%+32%
5.7%20%

$28.4K Vol.monthly

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.6 – 1.0%42%
1.1 – 1.5%26%

$112.1K Vol.

UK Annual GDP Growth 2026

1-2%90%
0-1%6%

$111.6K Vol.

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%60%
25-29.9%35%

$79.9K Vol.monthly

Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026

0.8-1.1%56%
1.2-1.5%31%

$68.5K Vol.annual

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

3.5–3.9%59%
3.0–3.4%19%

$138.3K Vol.monthly

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.926%
55.0 to 55.921%

$13.8K Vol.monthly

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%13%
Above 5%9%

$1.5M Vol.

Core PCE MoM - September 2026

0.2%36%
0.3%29%

$12.1K Vol.monthly

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.0%33%
3.1%27%

$14.3K Vol.monthly

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

20%chance

$1.1K Vol.1 year left

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?

90%Up

Up Down

$26.0K Vol.

Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?

$7.000+57%
$9.000+30%

$23.0K Vol.

ECB Interest Rates: December 2026

25 bps increase76%
No change20%

$32.9K Vol.annual

US announces another yen intervention by...?

40%chance

$0.0 Vol.2 months left

Bank of Brazil decision in November?

25 bps decrease87%
No Change9%

$50.4K Vol.annual

Macro Indicators

Mortgage delinquency rate exceeds 3% by end of Q4 2027?

US announces another yen intervention by...?

Japan recession in 2026?

UK Recession in 2026?

Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?